Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji

Super Metroid

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How many of those times is company A planning to charge 5 times for the same thing as company B? The numbers aren't coming out of thin air, Tsuji's tech is more time-consuming and expensive than Stemson's, but the end result will be the same if is Stemson is right. That's a problem, but I still think he'll get the money. He may have just not received an offer he likes. It could be he doesn't want to give up anything, and no one is going to invest 4 million dollars in a startup for 10% interest.

I'm basing my claim on the fact that Tsuji's technology is more complex than Tsuji's, requiring a more expensive culture process and more time. Also, I've never known a Japanese person to be a liar, and certainly not to tell such a bald-faced lie as this. 100% Tsuji gave him that estimate, but that doesn't mean they haven't made some improvements in the meantime that will allow them to bring the cost down somewhat. Regardless they will never be as cheap as Stemson.

I still find it speculative at best, but let's agree to disagree. The idea is that the supposed price difference between Tsuji and Stemson is the reason the no investor or donator is stepping with a reasonable offer. And well, I personally think that this is coping in order to preserve the thought that Tsuji is legit.

Want you to be right though.
 

trialAcc

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How many of those times is company A planning to charge 5 times for the same thing as company B? The numbers aren't coming out of thin air, Tsuji's tech is more time-consuming and expensive than Stemson's, but the end result will be the same if is Stemson is right. That's a problem, but I still think he'll get the money. He may have just not received an offer he likes. It could be he doesn't want to give up anything, and no one is going to invest 4 million dollars in a startup for 10% interest.
In biotech? A lot of them. Have you seen the price tags on some of the emerging ASO or cas9 related treatments? Many are six figures yearly, some 7 figures administered on a one time basis, yet you still have companies with less bleeding edge research getting investors and grants. The point here is that these are novel treatments. I fully understand if Stemson was about to launch commercially that people wouldn't want to back similar science at 5x the cost, but neither are close to commercialization and there is no current treatment available.

Also, 4 million into a start up for 10% is a pretty standard VC investment.
 

trialAcc

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Honestly, I can't really find ANYTHING where Stemson says they want to achieve occipital-like follicles, meanwhile RIKEN does so, they even made a whole paragraph backing that up in the newest post.
You're oldy fixated on this one aspect of the treatments. In the end it doesn't matter.

If you get the procedure done and have to go back for another one in 8-10 years to get it looking perfect again, it's better then the alternative.
 

pegasus2

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In biotech? A lot of them. Have you seen the price tags on some of the emerging ASO or cas9 related treatments? Many are six figures yearly, some 7 figures administered on a one time basis, yet you still have companies with less bleeding edge research getting investors and grants. The point here is that these are novel treatments. I fully understand if Stemson was about to launch commercially that people wouldn't want to back similar science at 5x the cost, but neither are close to commercialization and there is no current treatment available.
Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.

Also, 4 million into a start up for 10% is a pretty standard VC investment.

Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.
 

Super Metroid

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Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.



Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.

You are reasoning like a. we know Stemson's retail price and b. that they will deliver the product as advertised. Again, both are highly speculative. So far, Stemson is another potential in a pool where so far everybody has failed. Many hypes failed to deliver in the past.

When dealing with Tsuji, I don't think they need to look to Stemson but just deliver the product as quickly as humanly possible. Mostly for their own financial sake. I don't get the impression the move that way.
 

Pls_NW-1

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You're oldy fixated on this one aspect of the treatments. In the end it doesn't matter.

If you get the procedure done and have to go back for another one in 8-10 years to get it looking perfect again, it's better then the alternative.
We really don't know if they end up being sensitive and how negative that will affect such treatment. Such approach is critical for Androgenetic Alopecia, as Tsuji said.
 

trialAcc

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Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.



Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.
No of course you take into account the competitive landscape, but that's why I said it's irrelevant because there isn't one. All we have here is two companies with semi completed pre-clinical programs, in an marketplace worth several billion that is almost completely unserved besides hair transplants (and this would basically end the hair transplant industry in it's current form). I can't see why it would ever be a factor.

Like any start-ups, they're massive gambles. VC firms who invest in startups know that 95 out of 100 investments are probably doomed for failure. That number is probably even worse when it comes to medical startups.
 

trialAcc

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We really don't know if they end up being sensitive and how negative that will affect such treatment. Such approach is critical for Androgenetic Alopecia, as Tsuji said.
Yeah, my point is that whether it's sensitive or not is irrelevant. You'd still be the first wave of people to ever regain natural density/perfect hair, even if it starts thinning again after a few years. If the procedure isn't permanent the price will be much more affordable anyways.
 

Pls_NW-1

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Yeah, my point is that whether it's sensitive or not is irrelevant. You'd still be the first wave of people to ever regain natural perfect hair, even if it starts thinning again after a few years.
Good point.
 

pegasus2

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No of course you take into account the competitive landscape, but that's why I said it's irrelevant because there isn't one. All we have here is two companies with semi completed pre-clinical programs, in an marketplace worth several billion that is almost completely unserved besides hair transplants (and this would basically end the hair transplant industry in it's current form). I can't see why it would ever be a factor.

Like any start-ups, they're massive gambles. VC firms who invest in startups know that 95 out of 100 investments are probably doomed for failure. That number is probably even worse when it comes to medical startups.
Who cares how many billions it's worth if you're only getting 10% interest on a bond then all it's worth is 10% interest. Now if you're getting 10% interest in the company that's a different story. Tsuji may be reluctant to give anyone interest in the company. I think from the way you're speaking now you thought I meant 10% of shares earlier. Yeah, that would be worth the risk. A 10% interest-bearing loan would not be worth the risk on something that hasn't had a clinical trial. I don't know what kind of venture capitalist would make that deal, but they won't be making many more deals being that stupid.
 

pegasus2

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You are reasoning like a. we know Stemson's retail price and b. that they will deliver the product as advertised. Again, both are highly speculative. So far, Stemson is another potential in a pool where so far everybody has failed. Many hypes failed to deliver in the past.

When dealing with Tsuji, I don't think they need to look to Stemson but just deliver the product as quickly as humanly possible. Mostly for their own financial sake. I don't get the impression the move that way.
You're not reasoning at all, you're just being a doomer, and you think I'm a coper so there's nothing left to discuss.
 

trialAcc

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Who cares how many billions it's worth if you're only getting 10% interest on a bond then all it's worth is 10% interest. Now if you're getting 10% interest in the company that's a different story. Tsuji may be reluctant to give anyone interest in the company. I think from the way you're speaking now you thought I meant 10% of shares earlier. Yeah, that would be worth the risk. A 10% interest-bearing loan would not be worth the risk on something that hasn't had a clinical trial. I don't know what kind of venture capitalist would make that deal, but they won't be making many more deals being that stupid.
I thought we were talking about a 10% stake in the company.
 

pegasus2

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He could be referring to further loss of non transplanted hair, the presentations mention the draw backs of current medications etc so its fair to assume they dont expect their customers to use them. I'd imagine it's a one time fee for a full head of hair, if your not completely bald they'll give you top ups as the balding process continues.
That's what I meant. I guess I worded that poorly since everyone misunderstood. If the transplanted hair was androgen-sensitive then he wouldn't be able to do offer free top-ups, so this implies two things: 1. that the transplanted hair will be permanent 2. that if you continue to lose your native hairs they will replace them for free.
 

NorwoodGuardian

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That's what I meant. I guess I worded that poorly since everyone misunderstood. If the transplanted hair was androgen-sensitive then he wouldn't be able to do offer free top-ups, so this implies two things: 1. that the transplanted hair will be permanent 2. that if you continue to lose your native hairs they will replace them for free.

That's like after-sales maintenance, but when you sell goods you won't expect a 100% warranty claim and do it for free.
 

pegasus2

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That's like after-sales maintenance, but when you sell goods you won't expect a 100% warranty claim and do it for free.
It's included in the initial cost
 

Mighty

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Also, I've never known a Japanese person to be a liar, and certainly not to tell such a bald-faced lie as this.
I have. Japanese lie too, they are human. I believe that it is not Tsuji's case in this subject.

BTW, I will have a look on the Stemson's tech. And Tissuesomething. I hope there is more than blind speculation and faith behind this hype.

I don't know if I will get this treatment before my 40s, but I want to see a picture of an ex-NW100 with a head full of hair before the end of the decade.

If everything goes wrong, I will dress myself as a mouse to get the treatment.
 

Super Metroid

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You're not reasoning at all, you're just being a doomer, and you think I'm a coper so there's nothing left to discuss.
In general: no, because I think with all advances in science, hair loss will be cured sooner rather than later.

Regarding Tsuji I think you have to agree that it is at least suspicious that a relatively small requirement of money is stopping them and they are selling some snake-oil at the side. There might be a solid explanation of it all, but those are not the actions you'd like to see.
 

Roeysdomi

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is about artificial skin. Our brother Takashi Tsuji seems to be making good progress here too. Article is about a week old.
in the end it's kind of about hair too
I hate tsuji so much for delaying the haircloning with this funding BS . His holding a cure that can change our life :(
 
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