Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji

pegasus2

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I personally require a better source for such information, in this case, RIKEN or Tsuji himself. To base your claim on a nonconformed statement of a random blogger is naive in my opinion.

I'm basing my claim on the fact that Tsuji's technology is more complex than Tsuji's, requiring a more expensive culture process and more time. Also, I've never known a Japanese person to be a liar, and certainly not to tell such a bald-faced lie as this. 100% Tsuji gave him that estimate, but that doesn't mean they haven't made some improvements in the meantime that will allow them to bring the cost down somewhat. Regardless they will never be as cheap as Stemson.
 

pegasus2

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Honestly, I can't really find ANYTHING where Stemson says they want to achieve occipital-like follicles, meanwhile RIKEN does so, they even made a whole paragraph backing that up in the newest post.
Alexey said they would offer free top ups. He's not doing that if they expect the hairs to be androgen sensitive.
 

Pls_NW-1

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Alexey said they would offer free top ups. He's not doing that if they expect the hairs to be androgen sensitive.
You mean, if they would INDEED be androgen sensitive, they have to do top ups everytime now and then (ie. a span of 2-10 years), what would be very costly for 'em and then again not 'allowing' them to make such a statement; "free of charge top-up's".

Cool!

Edit:
Sorry for my bad expression, I suck at doing so, especially as I am not a native speaker. Hope you do understand!
 

pegasus2

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ok, but we dont what does it mean....free top ups because of cloned hair will fall out with time, or our original hair will fall out
I don't know how they would tell the difference. About 80% of Tsuji's grafts survived, I don't think that had anything to do with androgens. 124*.8=99.2 hairs which puts them at normal density for a Japanese person. I would imagine that they'd initially go a little higher than normal density for other races too to offset the 20% that will be lost. Stemson will probably do the same. The way it sounds like to me is that they want to charge a flat rate to everyone that would cover a full head of hair. If you are NW7 you get all the hairs in your first session, if you're not then you come back in as you need them.

You mean, if they would INDEED be androgen sensitive, they have to do top ups everytime now and then (ie. a span of 2-10 years), what would be very costly for 'em and then again not 'allowing' them to make such a statement; "free of charge top-up's".

Cool!

Edit:
Sorry for my bad expression, I suck at doing so, especially as I am not a native speaker. Hope you do understand!

What I mean is that the transplanted hairs will not be androgen sensitive otherwise doing free top ups could become very costly for them due to having to replace them every few years. If the transplanted hairs are permanent then they would only have to do ~30k grafts maximum over your lifetime if all of your natural hairs turned vellus. If the transplanted hairs are not permanent then there is no limit to the number of grafts that they would have to do, which would make free top-ups unfeasible.
 

Super Metroid

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How many of those times is company A planning to charge 5 times for the same thing as company B? The numbers aren't coming out of thin air, Tsuji's tech is more time-consuming and expensive than Stemson's, but the end result will be the same if is Stemson is right. That's a problem, but I still think he'll get the money. He may have just not received an offer he likes. It could be he doesn't want to give up anything, and no one is going to invest 4 million dollars in a startup for 10% interest.

I'm basing my claim on the fact that Tsuji's technology is more complex than Tsuji's, requiring a more expensive culture process and more time. Also, I've never known a Japanese person to be a liar, and certainly not to tell such a bald-faced lie as this. 100% Tsuji gave him that estimate, but that doesn't mean they haven't made some improvements in the meantime that will allow them to bring the cost down somewhat. Regardless they will never be as cheap as Stemson.

I still find it speculative at best, but let's agree to disagree. The idea is that the supposed price difference between Tsuji and Stemson is the reason the no investor or donator is stepping with a reasonable offer. And well, I personally think that this is coping in order to preserve the thought that Tsuji is legit.

Want you to be right though.
 

trialAcc

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How many of those times is company A planning to charge 5 times for the same thing as company B? The numbers aren't coming out of thin air, Tsuji's tech is more time-consuming and expensive than Stemson's, but the end result will be the same if is Stemson is right. That's a problem, but I still think he'll get the money. He may have just not received an offer he likes. It could be he doesn't want to give up anything, and no one is going to invest 4 million dollars in a startup for 10% interest.
In biotech? A lot of them. Have you seen the price tags on some of the emerging ASO or cas9 related treatments? Many are six figures yearly, some 7 figures administered on a one time basis, yet you still have companies with less bleeding edge research getting investors and grants. The point here is that these are novel treatments. I fully understand if Stemson was about to launch commercially that people wouldn't want to back similar science at 5x the cost, but neither are close to commercialization and there is no current treatment available.

Also, 4 million into a start up for 10% is a pretty standard VC investment.
 

trialAcc

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Honestly, I can't really find ANYTHING where Stemson says they want to achieve occipital-like follicles, meanwhile RIKEN does so, they even made a whole paragraph backing that up in the newest post.
You're oldy fixated on this one aspect of the treatments. In the end it doesn't matter.

If you get the procedure done and have to go back for another one in 8-10 years to get it looking perfect again, it's better then the alternative.
 

pegasus2

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In biotech? A lot of them. Have you seen the price tags on some of the emerging ASO or cas9 related treatments? Many are six figures yearly, some 7 figures administered on a one time basis, yet you still have companies with less bleeding edge research getting investors and grants. The point here is that these are novel treatments. I fully understand if Stemson was about to launch commercially that people wouldn't want to back similar science at 5x the cost, but neither are close to commercialization and there is no current treatment available.
Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.

Also, 4 million into a start up for 10% is a pretty standard VC investment.

Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.
 

Super Metroid

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Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.



Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.

You are reasoning like a. we know Stemson's retail price and b. that they will deliver the product as advertised. Again, both are highly speculative. So far, Stemson is another potential in a pool where so far everybody has failed. Many hypes failed to deliver in the past.

When dealing with Tsuji, I don't think they need to look to Stemson but just deliver the product as quickly as humanly possible. Mostly for their own financial sake. I don't get the impression the move that way.
 

Pls_NW-1

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You're oldy fixated on this one aspect of the treatments. In the end it doesn't matter.

If you get the procedure done and have to go back for another one in 8-10 years to get it looking perfect again, it's better then the alternative.
We really don't know if they end up being sensitive and how negative that will affect such treatment. Such approach is critical for Androgenetic Alopecia, as Tsuji said.
 

trialAcc

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Not really what I meant. Those six figure treatments are superior to the cheaper ones, so that justifies the price. Is Tsuji's HM superior to Stemson's? I don't think so, so how is he going to get customers? Why would anyone pay such a premium for something that isn't better?

You are acting like I'm saying this is the only reason he hasn't gotten investors yet, I'm just saying it's a potential factor. If I was looking to invest I would take that into consideration, and you'd be a fool if you didn't.



Excuse my poor choice of words, you know what I meant. This isn't a startup with a demonstrated product or an idea that can easily be made into reality guaranteed. It's a gamble.
No of course you take into account the competitive landscape, but that's why I said it's irrelevant because there isn't one. All we have here is two companies with semi completed pre-clinical programs, in an marketplace worth several billion that is almost completely unserved besides hair transplants (and this would basically end the hair transplant industry in it's current form). I can't see why it would ever be a factor.

Like any start-ups, they're massive gambles. VC firms who invest in startups know that 95 out of 100 investments are probably doomed for failure. That number is probably even worse when it comes to medical startups.
 

trialAcc

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We really don't know if they end up being sensitive and how negative that will affect such treatment. Such approach is critical for Androgenetic Alopecia, as Tsuji said.
Yeah, my point is that whether it's sensitive or not is irrelevant. You'd still be the first wave of people to ever regain natural density/perfect hair, even if it starts thinning again after a few years. If the procedure isn't permanent the price will be much more affordable anyways.
 

Pls_NW-1

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Yeah, my point is that whether it's sensitive or not is irrelevant. You'd still be the first wave of people to ever regain natural perfect hair, even if it starts thinning again after a few years.
Good point.
 

pegasus2

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No of course you take into account the competitive landscape, but that's why I said it's irrelevant because there isn't one. All we have here is two companies with semi completed pre-clinical programs, in an marketplace worth several billion that is almost completely unserved besides hair transplants (and this would basically end the hair transplant industry in it's current form). I can't see why it would ever be a factor.

Like any start-ups, they're massive gambles. VC firms who invest in startups know that 95 out of 100 investments are probably doomed for failure. That number is probably even worse when it comes to medical startups.
Who cares how many billions it's worth if you're only getting 10% interest on a bond then all it's worth is 10% interest. Now if you're getting 10% interest in the company that's a different story. Tsuji may be reluctant to give anyone interest in the company. I think from the way you're speaking now you thought I meant 10% of shares earlier. Yeah, that would be worth the risk. A 10% interest-bearing loan would not be worth the risk on something that hasn't had a clinical trial. I don't know what kind of venture capitalist would make that deal, but they won't be making many more deals being that stupid.
 

pegasus2

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You are reasoning like a. we know Stemson's retail price and b. that they will deliver the product as advertised. Again, both are highly speculative. So far, Stemson is another potential in a pool where so far everybody has failed. Many hypes failed to deliver in the past.

When dealing with Tsuji, I don't think they need to look to Stemson but just deliver the product as quickly as humanly possible. Mostly for their own financial sake. I don't get the impression the move that way.
You're not reasoning at all, you're just being a doomer, and you think I'm a coper so there's nothing left to discuss.
 

trialAcc

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Who cares how many billions it's worth if you're only getting 10% interest on a bond then all it's worth is 10% interest. Now if you're getting 10% interest in the company that's a different story. Tsuji may be reluctant to give anyone interest in the company. I think from the way you're speaking now you thought I meant 10% of shares earlier. Yeah, that would be worth the risk. A 10% interest-bearing loan would not be worth the risk on something that hasn't had a clinical trial. I don't know what kind of venture capitalist would make that deal, but they won't be making many more deals being that stupid.
I thought we were talking about a 10% stake in the company.
 

pegasus2

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He could be referring to further loss of non transplanted hair, the presentations mention the draw backs of current medications etc so its fair to assume they dont expect their customers to use them. I'd imagine it's a one time fee for a full head of hair, if your not completely bald they'll give you top ups as the balding process continues.
That's what I meant. I guess I worded that poorly since everyone misunderstood. If the transplanted hair was androgen-sensitive then he wouldn't be able to do offer free top-ups, so this implies two things: 1. that the transplanted hair will be permanent 2. that if you continue to lose your native hairs they will replace them for free.
 

NorwoodGuardian

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That's what I meant. I guess I worded that poorly since everyone misunderstood. If the transplanted hair was androgen-sensitive then he wouldn't be able to do offer free top-ups, so this implies two things: 1. that the transplanted hair will be permanent 2. that if you continue to lose your native hairs they will replace them for free.

That's like after-sales maintenance, but when you sell goods you won't expect a 100% warranty claim and do it for free.
 

pegasus2

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That's like after-sales maintenance, but when you sell goods you won't expect a 100% warranty claim and do it for free.
It's included in the initial cost
 

Mighty

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Also, I've never known a Japanese person to be a liar, and certainly not to tell such a bald-faced lie as this.
I have. Japanese lie too, they are human. I believe that it is not Tsuji's case in this subject.

BTW, I will have a look on the Stemson's tech. And Tissuesomething. I hope there is more than blind speculation and faith behind this hype.

I don't know if I will get this treatment before my 40s, but I want to see a picture of an ex-NW100 with a head full of hair before the end of the decade.

If everything goes wrong, I will dress myself as a mouse to get the treatment.
 
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