I created an account for the sole reason of providing a potential justification for Brotzu/FIDIA’s actions this past month. I am working under the assumption that Bep’s comments have a semblance of truth to them. I come from a finance background, so a lot of my justification will be numbers-based.
From what I have read in this thread, the majority of the comments are looking at this lotion from a “what can this lotion do for ME” perspective, as opposed to the perspective it should be viewed from: “what can this lotion do for FIDIA/Brotzu.”
If this lotion meets the claims it makes, the dollar-figure attached to the product is beyond any number I’ve seen mentioned in this thread. Looking at Merck’s 10K (annual report) from 2010 through to 2015, Merck made a little over $2 billion in revenue from Finasteride (Propecia). Not once did the drug report less than $185 million in revenue per year. If we give Brotzu’s lotion a conservative $100 million revenue per year estimate at a conservative 7% discount rate, the lotion is worth well over a billion dollars. Of course, those numbers are beyond conservative; if the lotion is BETTER than Finasteride it will likely make more revenue.
Running some simple numbers, this is easily a multi billion-dollar lotion for Brotzu.
Given this conclusion, why on earth would Brotzu/FIDIA ever leak anything that would jeopardize the future cash flows? The more people know about the lotion, the more of a vested interest companies like Merck have of screwing this whole thing up because it jeopardizes Finasteride’s cash flows. The more Brotzu/FIDIA leaks, the more likely it is that the eventual launch won’t go as planned.
If I was Brotzu/FIDIA, and I was sitting on a SOLUTION to hairloss (easily worth billions) I would want every single thing to be in check before I made so much as a peep about the lotion.
Think of this like a lottery ticket. Would you be waving around a lottery ticket to everyone saying, “Look at me, look, look, I won millions!” No, you wouldn’t. So why on earth would Brotzu/FIDIA wave around a lottery ticket worth billions. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by doing so. No offense, but they don’t care if it helps a bunch of guys on a hairloss forum sleep better. If you had a lottery ticket for a billion dollars and were planning on cashing the thing out the most appropriate way, you wouldn’t care either.
When an announcement is made, I’d wager that Brotzu/FIDIA will have a full plan for an effective way to sale/market the lotion. If what Bep’s initially said is true (pre-holiday announcement), there is a good chance that Brotzu/FIDIA just didn’t have everything in place. And as I said, if they didn’t have everything in place, it would jeopardize the launch.
An effective launch of the lotion is (potentially) a difference in the HUNDREDS of millions. Brotzu/FIDIA/any sane person wouldn’t care about making an announcement a couple of months later if it meant they made millions more in revenue.
I guarantee every single one of you would wait a year more if it meant you were better able to weather the backlash from Merck and make millions more in revenue for your company (assuming you were Brotzu/Merck).