Bayer Prolactin Receptor Antibody For Male And Female Pattern Hair Loss

[ppma]

This is fantasy. They aren't wasting time trialing an antibody to start over with an mRNA drug. This company doesn't even work with mRNA. They don't have the expertise to develop it. They bought the rights to the antibody to commercialize it. There's zero chance they do what you're suggesting. Another company might do it long down the road. Also, 20k is not my estimate. I would estimate between 20-50k. 20k would be very cheap for a mAb.

What is already developed is the antibody. There is no point in trying to create the mRNA version of it before knowing if it even works; we all agree on this. But if the running trials reveal that the antibody actually works, stocks go up, and then there would funding for further developments. There is no need for the company to have experience in the technology as companies partner all the time to exploit their expertise.

What I do not know, is wether the license is only about commercialization or they can also make developments upon the antibody itself. If it is just commercialization and exploitation in the current form, then I agree that it is all just fantasy.

 

[FilthyFrancis]

This would be a logical step for commercialization (...) it's all logical speculation and the trials in the US and Australia should prove positive results

Thanks for the good laugh buddy.

 

[pegasus2]

What is already developed is the antibody. There is no point in trying to create the mRNA version of it before knowing if it even works; we all agree on this. But if the running trials reveal that the antibody actually works, stocks go up, and then there would funding for further developments. There is no need for the company to have experience in the technology as companies partner all the time to exploit their expertise.

What I do not know, is wether the license is only about commercialization or they can also make developments upon the antibody itself. If it is just commercialization and exploitation in the current form, then I agree that it is all just fantasy.

Can you cite any precedent for this happening? How insane would you have to be to have a phase 2 trial showing your drug works. You're two years away from getting it on the market and generating BILLIONS in revenue. Instead you decide to start over so that you can have an mRNA drug that does the same thing on the market in 10 years. Why would an mRNA treatment even be any cheaper? If it cures hair loss and they can charge $50k for it they will regardless of what it costs them to manufacture it. They can produce monoclonal antibodies at scale for a few hundred dollars. They charge 80k+ on average because they can, not because they have to.

 

[coolio]

It was possible to sell propecia for $1/mo, but it was a couple hundred until generics came out.

Propecia also did not ever cost $50k.

Why not?


If HMI-115 (or anything else) actually works, then they can charge huge numbers initially. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the price a few years later after things settle down. They will keep making more money as the price drops until it's down to a few thousand bucks (inflation adjusted).

 

[pegasus2]

Propecia also did not ever cost $50k.

Why not?


If HMI-115 (or anything else) actually works, then they can charge huge numbers initially. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the price a few years later after things settle down. They will keep making more money as the price drops until it's down to a few thousand bucks (inflation adjusted).

Who would pay $50 for something that might make them regrow 10 hairs?

I get what you're saying, but I don't think the price ever comes down that low. I've said it before, but people don't seem to grasp that the insurers would balk at paying 80k for the endo drug if they are selling it to baldies for a few thousand. They will not give up their cash cow from the insurers to make baldies happy. I don't think anyone wants to wait a few years for the price to come down anyway. If you're on this forum you're probably buying it the minute it's available if you can pay.

 

[Dimitri001]

The scenario where HMI turns out a cure, but you still can't get it because it's beyond your means is quite possible. In fact there's no doubt it's gonna cost a lot, the part that's in doubt is whether it turns out to work.

The phase 1 in Australia is as good as a phase 2. It's 6 months long. That's long enough to confirm that it works. Should have results first quarter next year

If it works spectacularly in everyone phase 1 will confirm it, but if the results are mixed and some people are non responders, the small sample size of a phase 1 may leave us wondering how many people it works on and how well.

 

[coolio]

I'm not arguing that HMI will get down to a few thousand bucks. I'm just arguing that the marketing math favors cheapening it, and it will probably never get so cheap that this isn't the case. It may start at $50k and end up stalled at $25k or something.

As for the effect of the endo drug - since when does the medical industry give a crap about consistency in pricing? I could absolutely see them offering a cosmetic baldness treatment for $25k, and simultaneously charging insurers $50k for a re-branded version of the same thing. The insurers don't need to be happy about it for it to happen.

 

[froggy7]

beauty, health and youth is and will always be only for rich and ultra rich, it will never change

 

[Zon Ama]

beauty, health and youth is and will always be only for rich and ultra rich, it will never change

And again: What cosmetical procedure costs more than 10k$?

Some examples:
Invisalign: 3-7k$
Single dental implant: 1-2k$ (this is even covered by insurance to some degree)
Jawline surgery: 10k$
Breast implant: 5-7k$

This is not rich and not ultra rich

 

[pegasus2]

And again: What cosmetical procedure costs more than 10k$?

A hair transplant

 

[froggy7]

And again: What cosmetical procedure costs more than 10k$?

Some examples:
Invisalign: 3-7k$
Single dental implant: 1-2k$ (this is even covered by insurance to some degree)
Jawline surgery: 10k$
Breast implant: 5-7k$

This is not rich and not ultra rich

total face makover in korea - 50k$

 

[ppma]

If producing at large scale costs lie in the range of some hundred $ or even less, then I understand that the estimate of $50k is is not based on the production costs, which is what I was thinking. There is no point in investing in another technology then.

Then why the estimate of $20k? If it's based on numbers or studies I am really interested. 90% baldies in the forum might be willing to pay that much, but outside most balding men do not give a cr*p about their condition. At least not if it involves such quantities.

Surgical procedures usually involves other factors: insurances, a large team involved (nurses, anaesthetists, other technicians), facilities, liability insurances, but also the prestige and name of the surgeon. This last thing is what creates scarcity and raises the price, and applies to hair transplants as well. Also, we are not dealing with a drug saving anyone of dying from cancer like other mAb treatments.

Here we are talking about a product that can be administered with almost no specialized skill requirements, requiring quite cheap equipment, and with no need for special facilities. Profits in this scenario are maximized not by charging huge prices, but finding the price that multiplied by the consumers willing to pay it is the highest. Doubtfully >$10k

 

[pegasus2]

Not in Turkey or many other places in the world. And quality is even better in some of those cheaper places than the average western transplant clinic.


A hair tranpslant is more democratic than ever.

Yes, but the point is it's a lot more than that in the US, which is a more appropriate comparison for determining market pricing of a hair loss treatment. Turkey won't be manufacturing generic HMI-115 and selling it to Americans and Europeans.

 

[Zon Ama]

Yes, but the point is it's a lot more than that in the US, which is a more appropriate comparison for determining market pricing of a hair loss treatment. Turkey won't be manufacturing generic HMI-115 and selling it to Americans and Europeans.

Haha, I am trying to spread some positivity in this thread. Maybe youre right.
I am living in a bigger german city and I saw at least 15 people who had a hair transplant and I know one guy who had already 2 in Turkey
Even if it will not reach 100% density, no one has to be bald nowadays. Its a choice.

I am losing ground fast as f***, but at least we have options. Keep your head up, guys. In the end of the day its just hair, even if its annoying!

 

[coolio]

No one has to be bald? Tell that to the whole nw6-7 with diffused donor zone.

The usual response to that is "yOU SHOUld have GoTTen on finASTERide". As if miniaturization never starts before your 20s and as if 5ar drugs never cause hormonal side effects.

 

[JohnDoe5]

The Status of the trial is „Not yet recruiting“.

We could be happy If we hear something und end of 2023. The study completion is in March 2024 so Maybe we will get the results in Summer 2024…

These Are the Dates For the Phase I Trial:

Estimated Study Start Date :	April 2022
Estimated Primary Completion Date :	July 2023
Estimated Study Completion Date :	March 2024

There is No reason to believe we get the results earlier then it is officially announced on clinicaltrials.gov unfortunately

Could someone please explain the below information to me? The 1st link says that HMI-115 is only now preparing to go into a phase 1 trial for hair loss and recruitment hasn't even started yet BUT the 2nd link says that Hope Medicine has been given clearance to start its phase 2 trial with the same treatment and also for hair loss. Since the company was given clearance to start its' phase 2 study that should mean the phase 1 study is completed and the results have been tabulated. I'm confused. Which one of these 2 links is accurate?

ClinicalTrials.gov

clinicaltrials.gov

Hope Medicine Announces US FDA Clearance for Phase II Clinical Trial of A First-in-class Monoclonal Antibody, HMI-115, in Androgen Alopecia

Hope Medicine Inc. has recently announced that U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its Investigational New Drug (IND) application for phase II study to evaluate HMI-115, a first-in-class monoclonal antibody drug in treating androgen alopecia.

www.biospace.com

 

[pegasus2]

Could someone please explain the below information to me? The 1st link says that HMI-115 is only now preparing to go into a phase 1 trial for hair loss and recruitment hasn't even started yet BUT the 2nd link says that Hope Medicine has been given clearance to start its phase 2 trial with the same treatment and also for hair loss. Since the company was given clearance to start its' phase 2 study that should mean the phase 1 study is completed and the results have been tabulated. I'm confused. Which one of these 2 links is accurate?

ClinicalTrials.gov

clinicaltrials.gov

Hope Medicine Announces US FDA Clearance for Phase II Clinical Trial of A First-in-class Monoclonal Antibody, HMI-115, in Androgen Alopecia

Hope Medicine Inc. has recently announced that U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its Investigational New Drug (IND) application for phase II study to evaluate HMI-115, a first-in-class monoclonal antibody drug in treating androgen alopecia.

www.biospace.com

This was covered just 2 or 3 pages back in this thread. People really need to learn to read first and ask questions later

 

[Tarcko]

Even $60,000 or $80,000 is still a lot of money, especially for young people.

Yes but now i have a real motivation to make money ))

 

[-specter-]

I realize that for many this is "only" an aesthetic problem and therefore it is not given relevance. But there are many people who suffer from it on a personal level and I am sure that many who shave their heads and ignore it deep down also suffer from it. It is a question of human dignity, not just an aesthetic problem. If the investors and whoever managed it were not cynical Methuselahs, all this would be clearer. To wait decades for something that could be solved in 2-4 years is absurd.

Now we find ourselves with Australia that rejected phase 2 because Hope medicine wanted to save twice, the first time by doing phase 1 only for women, the second time when it decided to do a single joint phase two in the various countries. This ridiculous and irresponsible management of the company has led not only to delays but also to spending more money, other than saving.

 

[pegasus2]

I realize that for many this is "only" an aesthetic problem and therefore it is not given relevance. But there are many people who suffer from it on a personal level and I am sure that many who shave their heads and ignore it deep down also suffer from it. It is a question of human dignity, not just an aesthetic problem. If the investors and whoever managed it were not cynical Methuselahs, all this would be clearer. To wait decades for something that could be solved in 2-4 years is absurd.

Now we find ourselves with Australia that rejected phase 2 because Hope medicine wanted to save twice, the first time by doing phase 1 only for women, the second time when it decided to do a single joint phase two in the various countries. This ridiculous and irresponsible management of the company has led not only to delays but also to spending more money, other than saving.

That's overly pessimistic. It is normal to have a single multicenter global phase 2, and increases statistical power. As for only doing one phase 1, HMI isn't the one to blame for that. That trial was conducted by Bayer because they had no plans to use the drug for hair loss. When HMI purchased rights to the drug that changed. If they had decided to start with a phase 1 for hair loss they would still be waiting for that trial instead of having an approval to run a phase 2 in the US. Their choice will get the drug to market faster provided they move forward with the phase 2 in the US without waiting for the Australian trial to complete. No one knows what their plans are so there is no foundation to criticize them on this matter