Bayer Prolactin Receptor Antibody For Male And Female Pattern Hair Loss

RolfLeeBuckler

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the status of the endo trial is "Not yet recruiting".
So can we assume that they didnt even started recruiting for this trial?
I checked the "Tidewater Clinical Research" and under Endometriosis - tidewaterclinresearch.com they have a clinical trial with Endo. I think this is the trial of HopeMedecine - dont you think so?

It seems like they didnt updated the clinicaltrials.gov site.
 

pegasus2

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the status of the endo trial is "Not yet recruiting".
So can we assume that they didnt even started recruiting for this trial?
I checked the "Tidewater Clinical Research" and under Endometriosis - tidewaterclinresearch.com they have a clinical trial with Endo. I think this is the trial of HopeMedecine - dont you think so?

It seems like they didnt updated the clinicaltrials.gov site.
It just hasn't been updated.
 

hmmmmmmmm

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It seems they are more interested in pursuing Androgenetic Alopecia than you thought
I always thought they were pursuing Androgenetic Alopecia, as well as endo (whose trial has actually started)

No need to lie about my position in virtually every comment, we'll both find out if it's the cure at the exact same time...
regardless of any predictions made
 

hmmmmmmmm

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an IND literally just requires the investigator to file a status report once a year, and only becomes inactive if they don't start recruiting for a trial within 2.

Even after 2 years an extension can simply be filed to keep it active https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfcfr/CFRSearch.cfm?fr=312.45

An IND was a given, unless you thought they had completely abandoned pursuing Androgenetic Alopecia (which I didn't)
Nothing has really been clarified on their business plan or timeline
 

hmmmmmmmm

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The first piece of real info on their timeline will come when we see their registered study design, and then when recruitment for it starts.

I think (hope) we'll see that this year too, but it's not a given

And we don't even know the details of their IND - there are possibilities like it being approved for FPHL only, or the FDA requiring a combined phase I/II to be allowed to test in men. We don't have any of the details

They could still easily do what I suggested and finish their phase II endo trial to attract more funding, before starting any trial for hair loss...or not
 

hmmmmmmmm

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Our resident statistician tells us that the odds of the macaque results translating to humans is less than 1%. Clearly sophisticated investors think the chance is a great deal higher than that, as those are not odds they would take. Perhaps if they had a Canadian statistician they would make better investments.
it's kind of a meta-discussion, but this is absolutely not how early stage VC funding works.

a typical split would be a VC firm investing in 10 companies - with the expectation that 7 fail, 2 have moderate returns, 1 has good returns

failure is actually the default expectation for any specific company (despite due diligence to try to reduce this rate)...but the ones that show returns make up for all the failed bets

*(glancing at the firms that invested here, it looks like they have a 10-15% exit rate with a bunch more companies "in flight", completely in line with the principle outlined above)

Their investors could easily believe all of the following at the same time, they are not contradictory:
-Hope Medicine as a company has a better than even chance of failure at everything
-HMI has a good *enough chance of reaching the market to treat endo, making 60M a good investment to own a large share of the returns (this is actually a below average amount for recent biotech series B funding)
-HMI has a 1% chance of having the literal cure for hair loss and reaching the market in the near future
 
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trialAcc

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an IND literally just requires the investigator to file a status report once a year, and only becomes inactive if they don't start recruiting for a trial within 2.

Even after 2 years an extension can simply be filed to keep it active https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfcfr/CFRSearch.cfm?fr=312.45

An IND was a given, unless you thought they had completely abandoned pursuing Androgenetic Alopecia (which I didn't)
Nothing has really been clarified on their business plan or timeline
Sure it has...they said they planned to start the trial last year. Based on what just occurred, it's pretty damn clear that it took the FDA longer to approve this trial then the endo one. The trial will launch on the site within a few weeks and they will start recruiting this spring.

You just keep moving the goal posts over there.
 

trialAcc

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it's kind of a meta-discussion, but this is absolutely not how early stage VC funding works.

a typical split would be a VC firm investing in 10 companies - with the expectation that 7 fail, 2 have moderate returns, 1 has good returns

failure is actually the default expectation for any specific company (despite due diligence to try to reduce this rate)...but the ones that show returns make up for all the failed bets

*(glancing at the firms that invested here, it looks like they have a 10-15% exit rate with a bunch more companies "in flight", completely in line with the principle outlined above)

Their investors could easily believe all of the following at the same time, they are not contradictory:
-Hope Medicine as a company has a better than even chance of failure at everything
-HMI has a good *enough chance of reaching the market to treat endo, making 60M a good investment to own a large share of the returns (this is actually a below average amount for recent biotech series B funding)
-HMI has a 1% chance of having the literal cure for hair loss and reaching the market in the near future
While you are not wrong about the VC structure, you are being incredibly misleading about the average biotech funding round. That average number includes companies in areas like cancer, rare and orphan disease space, etc. In the hairloss space, this is (I think) the largest funding round ever raised where hairloss is one of the primary indications. There might be a series C or D from like 2 decades ago that I'm not aware of though.

Your 50% and 1% figures are also laughably dumb. Once a drug has reached phase 2, it's odds for reaching the market are about 50%. With two indications in phase 2, the company has an above 50% chance based on historical averages for having one successful application.
 

hmmmmmmmm

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IMO the bigger takeaway here is they're moving at a really fast pace for a biotech startup, with their endo phase II trial already recruiting before EOY 2021

a promising signal they'll also be able to move faster towards testing it for Androgenetic Alopecia (regardless of the specifics of their business strategy)

the celebration and focus on some bureaucratic paperwork is a just reflection of how starved the hair loss community always is for information outside of press releases

nuance is dead
 

pegasus2

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it's kind of a meta-discussion, but this is absolutely not how early stage VC funding works.

a typical split would be a VC firm investing in 10 companies - with the expectation that 7 fail, 2 have moderate returns, 1 has good returns

failure is actually the default expectation for any specific company (despite due diligence to try to reduce this rate)...but the ones that show returns make up for all the failed bets

*(glancing at the firms that invested here, it looks like they have a 10-15% exit rate with a bunch more companies "in flight", completely in line with the principle outlined above)

Their investors could easily believe all of the following at the same time, they are not contradictory:
-Hope Medicine as a company has a better than even chance of failure at everything
-HMI has a good *enough chance of reaching the market to treat endo, making 60M a good investment to own a large share of the returns (this is actually a below average amount for recent biotech series B funding)
-HMI has a 1% chance of having the literal cure for hair loss and reaching the market in the near future
You're an expert on everything, aren't you? The point was you said there was a 1% chance of success, now you say it's a 1% chance of being a literal cure. I would agree the chances of being a "literal cure for hair loss" are very low, but the chances of it being a better treatment than what's on the market is much higher than 1%. That was the original proposition before you moved the goal posts
 

trialAcc

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You're an expert on everything, aren't you? The point was you said there was a 1% chance of success, now you say it's a 1% chance of being a literal cure. I would agree the chances of being a "literal cure for hair loss" are very low, but the chances of it being a better treatment than what's on the market is much higher than 1%. That was the original proposition before you moved the goal posts
I would assume if this worked even remotely similar to the macaques and held the gains for even as close as long that it would technically be the cure for hairloss. Whether or not it could bring a NW7 to a NW0 would not mean it couldnt turn a NW2 into a NW0 and keep him there for a very long time or allow someone with early hairloss to avoid it through cycles.

The cure for a current NW7 might be beyond what a hormone therapy could do, maybe that lies in cellular or cloning treatments.
 

-specter-

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I would assume if this worked even remotely similar to the macaques and held the gains for even as close as long that it would technically be the cure for hairloss. Whether or not it could bring a NW7 to a NW0 would not mean it couldnt turn a NW2 into a NW0 and keep him there for a very long time or allow someone with early hairloss to avoid it through cycles.

The cure for a current NW7 might be beyond what a hormone therapy could do, maybe that lies in cellular or cloning treatments.
I have a nw3, so do you think there is a good chance of recovering the original hairline?
 

LouisSarkozy

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I have a nw3, so do you think there is a good chance of recovering the original hairline?
me too i'm n3.5/4 with the potential of regaining tiny vellus hair all the way down to nw0 area with min but i'm wondering if hmi could manage to get those terminal and cure us
 

trialAcc

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I have a nw3, so do you think there is a good chance of recovering the original hairline?
I have no idea how well this will work. We only have the macaques results to go off and if it worked as well on humans I'm sure it would restore a lot of your loss, but who knows if it would be a perfect regain of hair. After the trial finishes late this year or early next year we should get a good idea.
 

LouisSarkozy

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I have no idea how well this will work. We only have the macaques results to go off and if it worked as well on humans I'm sure it would restore a lot of your loss, but who knows if it would be a perfect regain of hair. After the trial finishes late this year or early next year we should get a good idea.
so maybe do you think there is a good possibilities we should see first resuls or data in a 1.5 years period?
 
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