Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji

[Roeysdomi]

I only want it to be out so we would see new haircloning companys.
Once the tech is out , it would be wayy easier to replicate it.

 

[MrV88]

That the prices would be high was anticipated by everyone. Even at these costs, the project would still commercially be a huge success: there are enough Bezos' and Musks' who would pay these amounts in order to have their hair back.

My concern is still why it is so hard for them to find investors. 8-10 million is apparerently required, apart from the 4.8 million (which would be allocated to other projects as well). A lot of money but still comparatively peanuts.



I plan on having 6 mansions by 2024.

hope you got enough left for Tsuji by then

 

[trialAcc]

Out of curiousty, what makes you think Stemson won’t charge the average patient around that ball park ($200,000+)? From what I’ve seen they haven’t given an estimated price range on commercialization.

Just a estimated guess based on how they've defined their target market in all of their investment pitch material. They use similar verbiage when talking about "high end clients" and specifically quoting several famous individuals who have openly spent 30-50k pound sterling (40-60k USD) on high end hair transplants.

It's possible it could be more, but the difference is that they aren't building their product so that they can preform it themselves, where as Tsuji/Riken are. They're building a service company that licenses out proprietary science to hair transplant doctors and gets revenue based on usage. What good would it serve them if they priced a product that no one used?

Another item of note is that the level of surgical involvement will also have a large factor on the price. If the hair transplant surgeon has to implant 50,000 synthetic scaffolds by hand and it takes 3 days or roughly 25 hours (as quoted in that video). Even according to our current transplant pricing (2-10$ a graft) you'd be in the Tsuji price range.

 

[trialAcc]

To me, what is truly depressing and horrifying about this news are the implications:

1. The fact they are still moving forward even with such an insane estimated price means they don't expect any similarly effective + markedly cheaper treatments to be available within the next say 10 years. In other words, this is the financial reality of a functional cure – anyone who could possibly present competition to them would likely fall within the same price range.
2. If you think dealing with hair loss is hard right now, in a world where no one, not even the richest and most powerful among us are safe from its ravages, imagine trying to cling on to your sanity as an aging baldie robbed of his youth while millionaire teens and 20-somethings get cloned hair at the first sight of hair loss. And you know the celebrities will go on to raise the standards for looks even higher.
3. Once a functional cure is available, the incentive to develop alternatives would be diminished. No one would really be rushing to be the first, as there'd be no prestige or renown in it anymore. Sure, there'd still be money to be made, but I imagine fewer would bother – and that again translates to more waiting.

Shoulda pushed harder for a safe maintenance treatment while we still had a shot. But hey, there's always the next lifetime, right?

Dude, they can't find a investor/partner and started a go-fund-me. They can believe whatever they want but it's clear that the market (investors) do not agree with them because their primary competitor is well funded and got a stamp of approval from a 60+ billion dollar pharma giant.

 

[WaccWaccWacc]

So they plan to be available by 2024 for 750k? At least something

Anyone who spends 750k at 2024 to be included in the clinical trials is a moron. Not only, do you not know if it is going to work but u just wasted 750k with that as well.

Best case scenario: everything is fine and there are no serious health consequences from the hair cloning method but you’re short 750k.

Worst case: something fucked happens to you and you're still short 750k.

Due to this, I think what Tsuji really meant is the 8-10M needed in funding after the 4.8M will be used to fund the limited 10 patients who are test subjects. (750k x 10 = 7.5M).

This also explains why clinical trials are only limited to 10 people. If you had 100, you would need 750k x 100 = 75M just to see if this thing works.

 

[poopfeast420]

Just a estimated guess based on how they've defined their target market in all of their investment pitch material. They use similar verbiage when talking about "high end clients" and specifically quoting several famous individuals who have openly spent 30-50k pound sterling (40-60k USD) on high end hair transplants.

It's possible it could be more, but the difference is that they aren't building their product so that they can preform it themselves, where as Tsuji/Riken are. They're building a service company that licenses out proprietary science to hair transplant doctors and gets revenue based on usage. What good would it serve them if they priced a product that no one used?

Another item of note is that the level of surgical involvement will also have a large factor on the price. If the hair transplant surgeon has to implant 50,000 synthetic scaffolds by hand and it takes 3 days or roughly 25 hours (as quoted in that video). Even according to our current transplant pricing (2-10$ a graft) you'd be in the Tsuji price range.

Have they confirmed whether implantation would require the same amount of effort as conventional transplantation?

 

[Super Metroid]

Anyone who spends 750k at 2024 to be included in the clinical trials is a moron. Not only, do you not know if it is going to work but u just wasted 750k with that as well.

Best case scenario: everything is fine and there are no serious health consequences from the hair cloning method but you’re short 750k.

Worst case: something fucked happens to you and you're still short 750k.

Due to this, I think what Tsuji really meant is the 8-10M needed in funding after the 4.8M will be used to fund the limited 10 patients who are test subjects. (750k x 10 = 7.5M).

This also explains why clinical trials are only limited to 10 people. If you had 100, you would need 750k x 100 = 75M just to see if this thing works.

Can a trial of only 10 people be enough to demonstrate safety? Isn't it possible that serious health consequences manifest a a portion of the population that just wasn't represented in the trial?

 

[Super Metroid]

Have they confirmed whether implantation would require the same amount of effort as conventional transplantation?

If the Stemson or Tsuji solution even comes out, robots will have to be and will be created to do this work.

 

[pegasus2]

Anyone who spends 750k at 2024 to be included in the clinical trials is a moron. Not only, do you not know if it is going to work but u just wasted 750k with that as well.

Best case scenario: everything is fine and there are no serious health consequences from the hair cloning method but you’re short 750k.

Worst case: something fucked happens to you and you're still short 750k.

Due to this, I think what Tsuji really meant is the 8-10M needed in funding after the 4.8M will be used to fund the limited 10 patients who are test subjects. (750k x 10 = 7.5M).

This also explains why clinical trials are only limited to 10 people. If you had 100, you would need 750k x 100 = 75M just to see if this thing works.

Of course you will know it will work. That won't be the phase I trial. What he meant was that to be included in the phase II trial will cost you 750k, and 100 patients will be admitted for this. A lot of people will pay that if they show off a NW7 with a full head of hair after phase I. After phase II it will quickly come town to 184k-276k, which I think is the price he gave youngjet a couple years ago. After many years it will come down to 138k-184k. I'm guessing the high range is for a NW7 or maybe someone with DUPA who needs another person's cells. These prices were probably determined by Organ Tech and might change somewhat when they find a new partner.

 

[trialAcc]

Have they confirmed whether implantation would require the same amount of effort as conventional transplantation?

Yes, Alexey from Stemson has said that the scaffolds need to be implanted the same as a hair transplant graft.

 

[trialAcc]

If the Stemson or Tsuji solution even comes out, robots will have to be and will be created to do this work.

Then why doesn't that exist for current hair transplants?

 

[Joxy]

They choose only 10 people for trials, because replicating stem cells/iPSCs is very expensive procedure, and require high skill scientists to do that properly, so also they will need another 2-3 years to train doctors to do the procedure properly.

Will the procedure works perfectly well? Nobody knows, but scientists has many methods to test their procedure how will translate in humans.

Sadly, this is the last generations of balding people. I mean 80% of general population will still not give a sh*t if they loose hair, because just look around. You have gyms on every corner and people are more and more overweight. You have dentist doctors on every corner and vast majority of people still walk with bad teeth.

Men and women are different. Men are pretty aware that if they make good money they will catch good chicks without problem. Women must invest in beauty if they want to be competitive on sexual market place and attract high quality rich guys.

What can members from hairloss community do right now? Very simple. Just contact via email or phone number the big pharma companies and introduce Dr.Tsuji to them. I guess vast majority of them never heard of him, so maybe some of them will be interested to get in touch with Dr.Tsuji.

 

[Joxy]

For example you can email this japanese companies.

Top 10 Pharma Companies in Japan

Japan's pharma market is one of the world's biggest, with a value of around USD 95 billion,…

pharmaboardroom.com

Or these chinese companies.

Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies in China (2018)

The pharmaceutical industry in China has been one of the fastest growing sectors in the country over the last two decades. Today, the Chinese ph

blog.bizvibe.com

And many, many others.

 

[trialAcc]

That price, if true, would mean it's not viable for basically any normal citizen struggling with baldness.

Even 75k was a huge reach, people simply dont have that kind of money or even access to such a huge amount. 60% of adults in the USA don't have more than $600 in savings for Christ's sake.

For sure, and its going to make baldness a lower-class condition for a decade or so.

 

[WaccWaccWacc]

Of course you will know it will work. That won't be the phase I trial. What he meant was that to be included in the phase II trial will cost you 750k, and 100 patients will be admitted for this. A lot of people will pay that if they show off a NW7 with a full head of hair after phase I. After phase II it will quickly come town to 184k-276k, which I think is the price he gave youngjet a couple years ago. After many years it will come down to 138k-184k. I'm guessing the high range is for a NW7 or maybe someone with DUPA who needs another person's cells. These prices were probably determined by Organ Tech and might change somewhat when they find a new partner.

Ah I thought Japan only had Phase I trials before going widespread.

Nevertheless, if you are of the second 11-110 people that try this and pay 750k, you cannot be completely assured it would work. You can be optimistic depending on the results of the first 10 patients. However from a statistics POV, a sample size of 10 measured solely through 1 year certainly doesn’t account for full credibility. Hence, the phase is still a “trial”.

 

[WaccWaccWacc]

For sure, and its going to make baldness a lower-class condition for a decade or so.

I disagree, not completely. I just think it’ll make balding reversal a extremely upper class thing, for a while. Even at 180k, if I were to guess, more than 90% of balding men could not afford that. The lower-class you describe is certainly not this extremely large group of men.

 

[poopfeast420]

Yes, Alexey from Stemson has said that the scaffolds need to be implanted the same as a hair transplant graft.

Gotcha thanks. Sounds like it's going to be pretty expensive then.

 

[WaccWaccWacc]

I think the main take away is, atleast for now, theres a lot of big if’s for this thing to happen and even if it does - it is out of reach for many people. Although pretty upsetting, its at-least an attempt to the final goal and with the lack of progress in the industry, its better than nothing.

 

[Roeysdomi]

Only celebs like kim kardashian spend this much money on cosmetic treatments.

there is no way in the world those price would bring them ppl .

the price would drop faster then you think.

 

[trialAcc]

Only celebs like kim kardashian spend this much money on cosmetic treatments.

there is no way in the world those price would bring them ppl .

the price would drop faster then you think.

Problem was that even the dropped price was insane. I'd probably have to be worth well into the 8 figures to contemplate spending that kind of money on hair and even then I think its a massive waste of money.