Drowning The Sorrow With Material Things! Plus Seven Words

Afro_Vacancy

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Images of gentile-friendly food from a cafeteria, dedicated to @macaroni .
 

JeanLucBB

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Related, can you explain to me how the Australian dollar has been so incredibly stable, barely nudging from $US 0.76, in the past few years?


It has tended back towards that level and that might be close to the median and average but I wouldn't call it stable. I can't find the source but I read in an article last year that over the past 5 years Australian investment bank and brokers predictions of the AUD/USD pairing from start of the year for end of year targets were off by an average of 8% which is gigantic and pretty much means they got the entire direction wrong but it is genuinely difficult to predict. The interest rate movements in the US have been slightly faster than predicted and the extent of lowering in Australia and the length of extent prior to a likely hike was not widely predicted over the last 3 years either by analysts. I was quite accurate on the interest rate cycle but also expected a much lower AUD considering the change in interest rate spread between us and had most of my money in USD exposed stocks. Commodity prices and particularly iron ore prices throw a spanner in the works.

TLDR: Currency movements beyond the month to month are incredibly hard to predict and almost as hard to explain. Short term technical analysis (charting and predictions using historical trend understanding) is probably most useful for price predictions and very few can call interest rate movements or commodity prices long term. Also, not all that stable.


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sunchyme1

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It has tended back towards that level and that might be close to the median and average but I wouldn't call it stable. I can't find the source but I read in an article last year that over the past 5 years Australian investment bank and brokers predictions of the AUD/USD pairing from start of the year for end of year targets were off by an average of 8% which is gigantic and pretty much means they got the entire direction wrong but it is genuinely difficult to predict. The interest rate movements in the US have been slightly faster than predicted and the extent of lowering in Australia and the length of extent prior to a likely hike was not widely predicted over the last 3 years either by analysts. I was quite accurate on the interest rate cycle but also expected a much lower AUD considering the change in interest rate spread between us and had most of my money in USD exposed stocks. Commodity prices and particularly iron ore prices throw a spanner in the works.

TLDR: Currency movements beyond the month to month are incredibly hard to predict and almost as hard to explain. Short term technical analysis (charting and predictions using historical trend understanding) is probably most useful for price predictions and very few can call interest rate movements or commodity prices long term. Also, not all that stable.


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dude why do you even need a part time job at all if your making all this cash online

impressive as f*** btw

i would watch your channel for sure if you did it
 

JeanLucBB

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dude why do you even need a part time job at all if your making all this cash online

impressive as f*** btw

i would watch your channel for sure if you did it

Because my dad says he won't go splits with me on a mortgage and deposit for a nice house even if I have the money to sustain it unless I get a job because he is offended by the idea of me sitting around all day bragging about my investment gains. Despite the fact I've already made him over 100gs in crypto gains managing some of his money.

Also 20k in a shitty job would be good spending money so I don't have to sell investments and the constant stream easier to pay a mortgage.
 

Afro_Vacancy

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It has tended back towards that level and that might be close to the median and average but I wouldn't call it stable. I can't find the source but I read in an article last year that over the past 5 years Australian investment bank and brokers predictions of the AUD/USD pairing from start of the year for end of year targets were off by an average of 8% which is gigantic and pretty much means they got the entire direction wrong but it is genuinely difficult to predict. The interest rate movements in the US have been slightly faster than predicted and the extent of lowering in Australia and the length of extent prior to a likely hike was not widely predicted over the last 3 years either by analysts. I was quite accurate on the interest rate cycle but also expected a much lower AUD considering the change in interest rate spread between us and had most of my money in USD exposed stocks. Commodity prices and particularly iron ore prices throw a spanner in the works.

TLDR: Currency movements beyond the month to month are incredibly hard to predict and almost as hard to explain. Short term technical analysis (charting and predictions using historical trend understanding) is probably most useful for price predictions and very few can call interest rate movements or commodity prices long term. Also, not all that stable.


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I noticed because I cashed out unisuper after four years in Australia. I used "transfer wise" to cash it out. I started off at 76 cents as I cashed it out, went down to maybe 73 cents, then around the time I was done cashing it out it was at 79 or 80 cents, and now it's back down to 76 cents.

When do the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne crash?
 

JeanLucBB

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I noticed because I cashed out unisuper after four years in Australia. I used "transfer wise" to cash it out. I started off at 76 cents as I cashed it out, went down to maybe 73 cents, then around the time I was done cashing it out it was at 79 or 80 cents, and now it's back down to 76 cents.

When do the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne crash?

I don't know enough about the property market locally or abroad to say accurately but I'll look into it more when I'm ready to buy.

Again like currency predictions I've seen talk of a property bubble in melb and syd for almost 5 years but of course at this point the more sensationalist analysts have been well off the mark. Solely looking at the capital available from wealthy foreign investors fumbling over themselves to buy here I very much doubt it will pop anytime soon, and the current means of inhibiting that from the federal gov are unlikely to stop that in the medium term. A cooling of demand seems more likely than a bubble pop which the government and reserve bank will work to achieve anyway.

The majority of my more driven and successful friends have moved to Melbourne or Syd for work, + the energy woes in SA have convinced me and most of my remaining friends here to make the move when its possible too. There is definitely demand for those cities in regards to opportunity and the culture + dwindling opportunity elsewhere, doesn't seem like just a matter of investors getting into a speculative fever.
 

RegenWaiting

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13k USD moon mission tickets bitcheszz
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Only a 2x rise from 14k will mean even more shocking proportion of world power.

Noticing you've previously stated belief in a still 10-15x potential for BTC, how do you think
the power consumption dilemma will be solved?

About crypto: I think Ethereums solve for transaction is far more sustainable. BTC may be in
need for some grave structural changes to ensure its survival in competition will lighter and
far more flexible alternatives.
 

SteveTabernack

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At least I'm gonna be a rich baldie.

Need to up the ante from the 2k euro I originally put in. Bitcoin life is too good not to.

Really need to figure out what I'm gonna do once I wanna cash out though. Some big Danish banks, including my own, were commenting today that they don't accept transfers from crypto exchanges as they have to be able to explain where the money comes from. Funny thing is I made a transfer from crypto exchange to my account not long ago no problem. High chance it's gonna become an issue in a taxcuck country like this though.
 

RegenWaiting

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I noticed because I cashed out unisuper after four years in Australia. I used "transfer wise" to cash it out. I started off at 76 cents as I cashed it out, went down to maybe 73 cents, then around the time I was done cashing it out it was at 79 or 80 cents, and now it's back down to 76 cents.

When do the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne crash?
When interest rates begin rising(debt), often accompanied by societal issues (demographic) of many faces.
 

JeanLucBB

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When interest rates begin rising(debt), often accompanied by societal issues (demographic) of many faces.

Interest rates woes will certainly create a damper, but a crash is unlikely. Change likely to be steady incremental movements over a decade back to historical norm levels.
 

JeanLucBB

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Only a 2x rise from 14k will mean even more shocking proportion of world power.

Noticing you've previously stated belief in a still 10-15x potential for BTC, how do you think
the power consumption dilemma will be solved?

About crypto: I think Ethereums solve for transaction is far more sustainable. BTC may be in
need for some grave structural changes to ensure its survival in competition will lighter and
far more flexible alternatives.

Only two solutions; block size increases or competent implementation of layer two solutions that provide ability for mainstream usability (without completely altering the protocol ala Eth solution).

Of course the community politics in btc are cancerous and there are legitimate reasons against this solution but I think in the long term this issue can't be addressed without drastic blocksize increases to reduce the energy consumption required to find the new block.

The banking system itself uses a huge amount of energy itself and in the long run even with mainstream adoption of bitcoin I don't think this is a huge problem, there are workable solutions and it is unlikely a crypto-system is going to be substantially more energy intensive than our current system to a point at which it is a major global bottleneck. Things will work themselves out.
 
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