Don't Be Delusional, There Won't Be Anything Better For The Next 30 Years. Deal With It.

How long until anything better (treatment, cure...) comes?


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Rho Gain

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I remember back when Follica was supposed to have us cured by 2008. 12 years later its still a pipedream. I mahaged not to even view this website for a solid 4-5 years. started reading threads again a few weeks ago and nothing has changed.

im not up to date on all the "latest" upcoming cures but it doesnt seem like anything is possible within the next 10 years.

Yeah, but now Follica is actually in late-stage trials, has patented their tech, and is clearly poised for release. In 2008, it was just research - not protocol, no proprietary tech, and no trials.

Research is slow. Medical research is slower. But unlike 2008, we now see the light at the end of the Follica tunnel. The only real question now is efficacy - how good will it be? Given how many people have had good results blindly needling, with no clue as to what is the optimum depth, density, timing, or added compounds, chances are that Follica will be great for lower NWs (<NW3), and possibly good for higher ones. A cure? No - but a new, powerful arrow in the quiver. The Big Three will soon be the Big Four, and that is a monumental shift in a paradigm that hasn't changed in 20 years. That's not cope, it's extrapolation of many, solid data points.
 

bucksins6x

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Yeah, but now Follica is actually in late-stage trials, has patented their tech, and is clearly poised for release. In 2008, it was just research - not protocol, no proprietary tech, and no trials.

Research is slow. Medical research is slower. But unlike 2008, we now see the light at the end of the Follica tunnel. The only real question now is efficacy - how good will it be? Given how many people have had good results blindly needling, with no clue as to what is the optimum depth, density, timing, or added compounds, chances are that Follica will be great for lower NWs (<NW3), and possibly good for higher ones. A cure? No - but a new, powerful arrow in the quiver. The Big Three will soon be the Big Four, and that is a monumental shift in a paradigm that hasn't changed in 20 years. That's not cope, it's extrapolation of many, solid data points.
How much longer till we see this do you think?
 

Rho Gain

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How much longer till we see this do you think?

The question has been asked hundreds of times. I think the soonest you will be able to go into a derm's office and get the procedure done will be Q4 2021. Latest would be Q4 2023. It's a big spread, but I don't have enough data to shrink it. Purely speculating, I would be surprised if it was released before the first half of next year or later than the first half of '22.
 

NewUser

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My-my, and the hair transplant butchers would be waiting in the wings like salivating jackals over this unfounded speculation.

I believe FOL-004 is coming. Nobody props up a company this long without a realistic plan for product release. Not unless it's a Japanese company.
 

Bornwithacurse225

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My-my, and the hair transplant butchers would be waiting in the wings like salivating jackals over this unfounded speculation.

I believe FOL-004 is coming. Nobody props up a company this long without a realistic plan for product release. Not unless it's a Japanese company.
Ugh I keep hearing new things. I just want something in the next couple years I think meds can hold us all off for awhile
 

pegasus2

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I've been reading about Follica for the last 15 years...

What is HM?

It doesn't matter how long you've been reading about them. It takes a long time to bring something to market. They are beginning phase 3 now which means the wait is almost over. So actually bimmler would lose anything he bet.
 

resu

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Breezula (CB) and micro-needling for maintaining and FUE for the heavy-weight density and hairline work. I think that's better than finasteride,min and FUT/FUE but not by much.
 

John Difool

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I've read about it... but the proclaimed costs ( 200,000 $ and more) unaffordable...
Some people are getting things mixed up. I strongly suggest you do some reading before posting statements like that.

HM is a wider term that also includes other methods besides cloning. In hair multiplication, hairs are simply plucked from the scalp or beard and then implanted into the bald part of the scalp. The idea is that some germinative cells at the base of the hair follicle will be pulled out along with the hair. Once the hair is re-implanted, these cells would be able to regenerate a new follicle. In theory, microscopic examination of the plucked hair could help the doctor determine which hairs have the most stem cells attached and thus which are most likely to regrow. The procedure is called “hair multiplication” since the plucked follicles would regrow a new hair, potentially giving an unlimited supply.
In a modification of this procedure, the bulbs of the hair are separated from the shafts and then their cells (matrix keratinocytes and Mesodermal sheath or papilla cells) cultivated in vitro (outside the body). After the cells are multiplied, they are injected into the pores of local, dormant hair follicles in the balding area. The problem with either technique is that matrix keratinocytes (the plucked cells) are only transient amplifiers, and the stem cells around the bulge region of the follicle, the ones most important for hair growth, are not harvested in any significant numbers and can’t be readily activated to produce a hair.

 

Timii

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We already know it's useful when we see people get near full regrowth from dermarolling after being slick bald. Skepticism is healthy, but don't be a pessimist.
Such miraculous regrowth from microneedling alone?
 

NewUser

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I've read about it... but the proclaimed costs ( 200,000 $ and more) unaffordable...

That would be the worst business plan ever. Charging $200k would leave boatloads of money on the table for the next guys to scoop up with a more affordable procedure targeting the vast majority of people and incomes. If the procedure is a commercial offering only, then what the business guys will want to go after is market share, and the market is much larger than a few thousand millionaires, a few of whom are even worried about hairloss. There will be alternatives because no country was able to keep even atomic weapons technology a state secret since the 1940s. And, this is medicine not nuclear physics.
 

NewUser

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It's not like it's a widget that they can just churn out as many as they want. There are limits to how many people they will be able to serve. It's going to take years to ramp that up, so it's going to be expensive in the beginning.

Sure maybe $10k or $15k, and even those prices will come down. There are only so many bald millionaires. Maybe 10 to 15% of those who buy Lamborghinis and Porsches etc are bald

Nearly 40% of Americans can't cover a surprise $400 expense

However, Hair Transplant Market to Hit $31 Billion by 2025: Global Market Insights, Inc.
 
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NewUser

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Yeah, by 2050 maybe.

$200k is the average price for a Lamborghini sports car. Does everyone drive a Lamborghini? No, there are much more affordable cars available. Henry Ford knew that if his own factory workers couldn't afford to buy his cars, then the business model was deeply flawed and needed a price structure to make it work. Pegasus is somewhat right when he says hair primordiums is not the same as churning out widgets. It will be much more labor-intensive than, say, manufacturing striped toothpaste, a technological marvel all by itself. But Tsuji will need to be able to produce some kind of consistency with respect to results, and a protocol will have to be standardized in order to be reproducable in a clinical setting. At that point, Tsuji's hair primordiums begin to resemble a standardized widget-making procedure that can be copied by anyone with a list of instructions or 'recipe'.

Can Tsuji monopolize his procedure for a decade? As a comparison, our government guys could not keep the atomic bomb a technological secret for even 5 years in the 1940s, and the Manhattan Project was an incredibly secretive undertaking. Tsuji will have competition and likely to highly probably within 5 years or less.
 
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John Difool

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Unless China continue to do what they are known for. But after covid things will be harder for them.
 

NewUser

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There is one major problem with that analogy. Other nations didn't have to go through a regulatory process before being able to copy America's nuclear technology. Companies that wish to compete with Tsuji will have to go through a regulatory process. They could have competition soon after in Japan, but in the rest of the world it is going to take a while.

So, one of the promises of neoliberal economics was that deregulation would unleash greed, and market forces would deliver the goods. The thought went that if we could just get rid of the dead hand of government bureaucracy, the world would be a better place. Like its predecessor market ideology, laissez-faire, the "new" liberal capitalism just hasn't delivered the free market miracle as advertised. With respect to medical research, there is science, and there is corporate science. They are not the same. Their wacky economic theory is dead in the most elite schools for economics and won't work any better for Tsuji and Riken in Japan, either.
 

NewUser

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The problem is not regulation. It is a lack of investment in basic research. We were warned not to hand big pharma 20 and 30-year patent protections on old drug discoveries. Today they are sitting on mountains of cash.

And if you don't understand Marx, then you would struggle to understand all of the classical reformists of the last 200 years prior to 1980 when the Reaganauts and Thatcherites started the western world down this current road to serfdom.
 
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