Hair Transplant Industry Could Be Doomed

[otis]

https://headlinehealth.com/the-hair-transplant-industry-could-be-doomed/

 

[baldlygoing]

No matter how good (or bad) the article I always cringe when I see "mice" mentioned.

 

[stonecold]

https://headlinehealth.com/the-hair-transplant-industry-could-be-doomed/

We are many years off from a complete cure. We could have a better solution than minoxidil and finasteride in a about 5 years or so. However hair transplants are here to stay for the long term.

It's like teeth. People in the past Lost teeth all the time because of poor hygiene. Now we have the best Electric toothbrushes and the best toothpastes but still we are short of dentists because we need them!

Hair transplants will always be needed in cosmetic surgery as people will want to have different styles, density, hair lines etc. Also beards and eyebrows are now transplanted too.
Or to cure other issues such as burns and wounds etc.

Even if a proper 'cure' came out there will still be a need for hair transplants as no medicine cures 100 percent of people. So the small percentage that can't get cures will need transplants. And the fact vanity surgery is going up every year more and more of that percentage would want transplants too.

 

[Mandar kumthekar]

No it could become more powerful industry because hair replication if comes true needs more surgeon to plant those Petrydish hairs on people.

 

[9982]

We are many years off from a complete cure. We could have a better solution than minoxidil and finasteride in a about 5 years or so. However hair transplants are here to stay for the long term.

It's like teeth. People in the past Lost teeth all the time because of poor hygiene. Now we have the best Electric toothbrushes and the best toothpastes but still we are short of dentists because we need them!

Hair transplants will always be needed in cosmetic surgery as people will want to have different styles, density, hair lines etc. Also beards and eyebrows are now transplanted too.
Or to cure other issues such as burns and wounds etc.

Even if a proper 'cure' came out there will still be a need for hair transplants as no medicine cures 100 percent of people. So the small percentage that can't get cures will need transplants. And the fact vanity surgery is going up every year more and more of that percentage would want transplants too.

Actually tooth loss and decay has much more to do with nutrition. Hairless has more to do with genetics. Just saying

 

[Trouse]

Actually tooth loss and decay has much more to do with nutrition. Hairless has more to do with genetics. Just saying

Ya it’s too bad. You could rot your teeth out of your head and then just get beautiful veneers, but if you treat your body like a temple you still have just as much a chance sporting the head hair density of a leg.

 

[Rho Gain]

We're decades away from a non-surgical intervention that will result in 100% regrowth and retention, so there will always be people who need transplants. If cloning becomes a reality, that + ARTAS = full head. For the rest of us who aren't suffering from aggressive loss and have responded to current protocols, the novel interventions (Follica, other biologics, etc.) will move the needle significantly without requiring transplantation. So no, transplants will be an arrow in the quiver for the foreseeable future (one-two generations), but it will be less common in the coming decades. How much so? Who knows - it depends on what the next round of new treatments (those available <5 years) can achieve, but few if any are claiming to deliver 2-3 Norwood improvements, so I'd guess no more than a 15-25% drop in the transplant industry, especially with the continuing evolution of ARTAS (ARTAS's ability to both extract and implant combined with continued advances in AI will be the real game changer of the transplant business, and drastically reduce the cost of surgery while simultaneously improving outcomes).

 

[2young2retire]

I believe a cure will be accelerated as the transistor nm dye gets smaller and smaller.
Think of it like this, if computing power skyrockets the next years why not run simulation trials instead of "real" ones.
Sorry, technology advancement in General is a better term.

In such an environment of changes, we just can't conclude.

 

[inmyhead]

I believe a cure will be accelerated as the transistor nm dye gets smaller and smaller.
Think of it like this, if computing power skyrockets the next years why not run simulation trials instead of "real" ones.

In such an environment of changes, we just can't conclude.

Well there is a limit how small transistors can get and we are quite close to it. But researchers seem to find new ideas how to increase computing power without reducing size of transistors. Future looks bright.

 

[Spanishboy97]

We're decades away from a non-surgical intervention that will result in 100% regrowth and retention, so there will always be people who need transplants. If cloning becomes a reality, that + ARTAS = full head. For the rest of us who aren't suffering from aggressive loss and have responded to current protocols, the novel interventions (Follica, other biologics, etc.) will move the needle significantly without requiring transplantation. So no, transplants will be an arrow in the quiver for the foreseeable future (one-two generations), but it will be less common in the coming decades. How much so? Who knows - it depends on what the next round of new treatments (those available <5 years) can achieve, but few if any are claiming to deliver 2-3 Norwood improvements, so I'd guess no more than a 15-25% drop in the transplant industry, especially with the continuing evolution of ARTAS (ARTAS's ability to both extract and implant combined with continued advances in AI will be the real game changer of the transplant business, and drastically reduce the cost of surgery while simultaneously improving outcomes).

I would be very interesed in seeing how AI can improve hair trasplant in the near future but I haven't seen much about it on the internet

 

[MeDK]

I believe a cure will be accelerated as the transistor nm dye gets smaller and smaller.
Think of it like this, if computing power skyrockets the next years why not run simulation trials instead of "real" ones.

In such an environment of changes, we just can't conclude.

No matter how much computer power you have. It doesn't make the models better just because of that.

Just like the daily weather forecasting. They use supercomputers all the time and get it wrong daily.

Bad input gives bad output, no matter how great the computing power is

 

[2young2retire]

https://3dprintingindustry.com/news...printing-to-grow-human-hair-follicles-157822/
Isnt this impressive?


Also this makes me thinking
https://news.developer.nvidia.com/ai-helps-visualize-human-cells-like-weve-never-seen-them-before/

 

[stonecold]

Actually tooth loss and decay has much more to do with nutrition. Hairless has more to do with genetics. Just saying

Possibly. But people have much healthier teeth but the need for dentists is increasing. Along with a need for even better 'smiles'. So the work stays for dentists as the demand is there.

Same I think would apply for hair transplants. People will want to perfect their hair lines, any patches, beards, eyebrows etc.

 

[Rho Gain]

I would be very interesed in seeing how AI can improve hair trasplant in the near future but I haven't seen much about it on the internet

I mean AI as it could/will be applied to ARTAS. Imagine a surgeon-free hair transplant, where the ARTAS does all the mapping, modeling, harvesting, and implanting. In truth, the latest update already applies rudimentary AI (especially while mapping) and does all of those processes, albeit with human assistance (particularly when modeling); can a fully-automated, AI ARTAS be far off? Once the surgery is essentially surgeon-free, the cost should come down by an order of magnitude. Imagine an hair transplant clinic with five ARTAS lined up in a row, all doing surgeries 12+ hours a day, with the physician/PA occasionally coming in to check on the progress and aftercare. It's only a few years away, and should bring Turkey-like cost-per-follicle to the US/Europe. And if cloning ever happens (I'm not optimistic it will be anytime soon - probably 10+ years off), boom - a one-procedure cure.

This is why I have been saying for years that ARTAS would be the future of hair transplants. On another nearly-dead forum run by a guy whose only interest is hair transplants (because that's how he makes his money - by charging surgeons money to join his "association"), ARTAS use to have its own forum where the lead engineer would answer questions (that forum closed, I assume, because they quit their "association" with the forum owner). Years ago and long before they rolled out the extraction capability, I asked them if they were working towards an ARTAS that could do extractions without human intervention, and from his answer it was clear to me what their end game was - a fully automated hair transplant system that produces results that match or exceed the best human surgeons and are repeatable client after client after client. I have no intention of ever getting a hair transplant, but if I were in the market for it, I would only ever have an ARTAS transplant.

 

[2young2retire]

add to this the deep learning and in no time you have a true hair transplant god. I just cannot see why all these won't be applied to cell cultures, biopsies, individualized hair regimes, etc, etc.... YES the hair transplant industry is doomed

I mean AI as it could/will be applied to ARTAS. Imagine a surgeon-free hair transplant, where the ARTAS does all the mapping, modeling, harvesting, and implanting. In truth, the latest update already applies rudimentary AI (especially while mapping) and does all of those processes, albeit with human assistance (particularly when modeling); can a fully-automated, AI ARTAS be far off? Once the surgery is essentially surgeon-free, the cost should come down by an order of magnitude. Imagine an hair transplant clinic with five ARTAS lined up in a row, all doing surgeries 12+ hours a day, with the physician/PA occasionally coming in to check on the progress and aftercare. It's only a few years away, and should bring Turkey-like cost-per-follicle to the US/Europe. And if cloning ever happens (I'm not optimistic it will be anytime soon - probably 10+ years off), boom - a one-procedure cure.

This is why I have been saying for years that ARTAS would be the future of hair transplants. On another nearly-dead forum run by a guy whose only interest is hair transplants (because that's how he makes his money - by charging surgeons money to join his "association"), ARTAS use to have its own forum where the lead engineer would answer questions (that forum closed, I assume, because they quit their "association" with the forum owner). Years ago and long before they rolled out the extraction capability, I asked them if they were working towards an ARTAS that could do extractions without human intervention, and from his answer it was clear to me what their end game was - a fully automated hair transplant system that produces results that match or exceed the best human surgeons and are repeatable client after client after client. I have no intention of ever getting a hair transplant, but if I were in the market for it, I would only ever have an ARTAS transplant.

 

[HairSuit]

I mean AI as it could/will be applied to ARTAS. Imagine a surgeon-free hair transplant, where the ARTAS does all the mapping, modeling, harvesting, and implanting. In truth, the latest update already applies rudimentary AI (especially while mapping) and does all of those processes, albeit with human assistance (particularly when modeling); can a fully-automated, AI ARTAS be far off? Once the surgery is essentially surgeon-free, the cost should come down by an order of magnitude. Imagine an hair transplant clinic with five ARTAS lined up in a row, all doing surgeries 12+ hours a day, with the physician/PA occasionally coming in to check on the progress and aftercare. It's only a few years away, and should bring Turkey-like cost-per-follicle to the US/Europe. And if cloning ever happens (I'm not optimistic it will be anytime soon - probably 10+ years off), boom - a one-procedure cure.

This is why I have been saying for years that ARTAS would be the future of hair transplants. On another nearly-dead forum run by a guy whose only interest is hair transplants (because that's how he makes his money - by charging surgeons money to join his "association"), ARTAS use to have its own forum where the lead engineer would answer questions (that forum closed, I assume, because they quit their "association" with the forum owner). Years ago and long before they rolled out the extraction capability, I asked them if they were working towards an ARTAS that could do extractions without human intervention, and from his answer it was clear to me what their end game was - a fully automated hair transplant system that produces results that match or exceed the best human surgeons and are repeatable client after client after client. I have no intention of ever getting a hair transplant, but if I were in the market for it, I would only ever have an ARTAS transplant.

I don’t know that I agree with that, yet. There is an high level of artistry to a top notch transplant. It takes a skilled, artistic surgeon that can mimic the direction and growth pattern of existing native hair, and match that with the new grafts, to get everything to blend seamlessly. Even still, it’s not a guarantee. That is certainly not to say that AI couldn’t allow ARTAS to evolve to that point, but where it stands today, I would only trust a living breathing human with eyes on the situation.

 

[Spanishboy97]

I mean AI as it could/will be applied to ARTAS. Imagine a surgeon-free hair transplant, where the ARTAS does all the mapping, modeling, harvesting, and implanting. In truth, the latest update already applies rudimentary AI (especially while mapping) and does all of those processes, albeit with human assistance (particularly when modeling); can a fully-automated, AI ARTAS be far off? Once the surgery is essentially surgeon-free, the cost should come down by an order of magnitude. Imagine an hair transplant clinic with five ARTAS lined up in a row, all doing surgeries 12+ hours a day, with the physician/PA occasionally coming in to check on the progress and aftercare. It's only a few years away, and should bring Turkey-like cost-per-follicle to the US/Europe. And if cloning ever happens (I'm not optimistic it will be anytime soon - probably 10+ years off), boom - a one-procedure cure.

This is why I have been saying for years that ARTAS would be the future of hair transplants. On another nearly-dead forum run by a guy whose only interest is hair transplants (because that's how he makes his money - by charging surgeons money to join his "association"), ARTAS use to have its own forum where the lead engineer would answer questions (that forum closed, I assume, because they quit their "association" with the forum owner). Years ago and long before they rolled out the extraction capability, I asked them if they were working towards an ARTAS that could do extractions without human intervention, and from his answer it was clear to me what their end game was - a fully automated hair transplant system that produces results that match or exceed the best human surgeons and are repeatable client after client after client. I have no intention of ever getting a hair transplant, but if I were in the market for it, I would only ever have an ARTAS transplant.

I have heard that at this moment ARTAS doesn't do a very good job, the results I've seen weren't impressive

 

[2young2retire]

breathing humans could have a bad day though

 

[Dar]

Ya it’s too bad. You could rot your teeth out of your head and then just get beautiful veneers, but if you treat your body like a temple you still have just as much a chance sporting the head hair density of a leg.

Thing is most people treat their bodies like trash cans....lol.....

 

[HairSuit]

breathing humans could have a bad day though

Absolutely. At least a human can make the choice to adjust tactics as the procedure goes on. A robot.... not so much. Not yet.