Bayer Prolactin Receptor Antibody For Male And Female Pattern Hair Loss

[fashy]

1. We know that what works well in stump-tailed macaques for hair works well in humans as well. The macaques have the closest thing to human Androgenetic Alopecia in the animal kingdom than anybody else. It will be a miracle if this does not get replicated in humans to any degree.
2. So? Just because they have one product that they are pursuing that somehow makes them automatically unreliable? lmao.
3. Absolute bullshit. Now you are basically arguing that the entirety of their trial with the macaques was what ... essentially falsified?
4. Yes, novel approaches to treating diseases usually means that there is not much established science on the issue and all new mechanisms have not been previously well understood. Just because it is a new approach and essentially a new discovery, doesn't mean it doesn't work. That's literally how science develops.
5. It seems like you have no idea of either of these drugs' mechanisms and the things they target if you think HMI should in any way shape or form overlap with the effect of Minoxidil.
6. Again, this is just lack of knowledge on your part. There should not be any negative side effects in shutting down prolactin in the male body due to what the hormone does for men - which is nothing positive.
7. Again. So? Delays are often to be expected, this speaks nothing to the quality of the treatment.
8 and 9. This is just what ifs and a betting game at this point. Nobody knows when this comes out. Nobody knows if there are going to be more delays or whether or not it will prove to be cure for certain. Nobody knows when we can even expect to get it on the grey market, if ever.

None of this changes the fact that this is the most promising drug for hair loss we have had in years. The odds of this working as intended are higher than any other drug in the pipeline. We should have phase 2 results in humans sometime next year, no one will need to wait for 5+ years to know whether this works or not. Why is there this need to constantly bring new treatments and forum threads down with cynicism when companies and treatments like this one have not done anything to justify any of it yet. Be cautiously optimistic but don't come up with a 1000 scenarios as to why this won't work or why it will get delayed or never get released in the first place because it's pointless. You're wasting your time and you're wasting other people's time and playing with their insecurities.

 

[fashy]

those uncertainties already exist, whether anybody lists them out or not

not trying to stop the party here, but IMO nobody should make a hair transplant decision today based on the assumption that it's a given this becomes an available treatment in the near future

and 80% chance that everything I listed (and didn't list) is all true is wildly optimistic - just done to illustrate that it still gets you very quickly to the statement: "80% chance HMI-115 fails"

Cool, cause nobody here is doing that. Pegasus was saying to at least wait for phase 2 results which will provide clarity on the matter and we should have them by the end of next year at the latest.

And no, I'm not going to play some retarded probability game when the statements you make themselves are poorly informed and some are downright stupid. It is hilarious to me, however, that you somehow arrived at an "objective" 80% chance that HMI fails based on false suppositions. You and your masterful probability calculations must be making bank on the crypto/stock market.

 

[pegasus2]

sorry to ask again but theorically when an we expect phase 2 results to be shown? i'm so f*****g tired and desperate right now .....

Later next year/early 2023

 

[poopfeast420]

@pegasus2 - here's a quick list of at least some of the (mostly-independent) sources of uncertainty

tl;dr - even if you were 80% certain in the truth/falsehood of each statement individually in favour of HMI-115...
there'd only be a 10-20% chance that A,B,C above are all true, as an upper limit

1. it's an uncontrolled, non-human, monkey study. Drug has never been studied in men for any indication
2. 100% of the available information is coming from a Chinese biotech startup's patent applications and press releases (just as they were seeking early investors) - this looks like their only product, it *has* to succeed at any cost
3. patents do not need to contain scientific truths, just legal truths. It's why there's so many patents for perpetual motions machines (but I'm not lobbying to have the nuclear power plant down my street to be shut down)
4. the proposed mechanism by which it mediates the effect is through a poorly understood hormone in men, and in the hair follicle specifically
5. the effect it has may overlap substantially with finasteride/min, so the marginal benefit may not be that large vs untreated men with Androgenetic Alopecia
6. because it's a poorly understood hormone (especially in men), the side effects are hard to predict - these alone could end development
7. delays in drug development are extremely common, as is promising drugs being killed for non-scientific (read: financial) reasons
8. prospects of getting this early on the grey market, or off-label, are extremely low in the next 5+ years
9. by the time it's available, there may be better treatments available or this treatment may not work that well since he's now older

Most of these are true but point 3 is not relevant. You're correct that patents don't need to verify what they are claiming is scientifically feasible, but if falsified evidence is included in a patent, the entire patent is invalidated. Companies have no motivation to endanger the validity of their patent by including falsified data.

 

[trialAcc]

Yes, and Propecia was overpriced IMO.

A bill for $20k all at once is very different from paying $1k/yr for 20 years. Few people in the general population will pay $20k at once for hair. Guys on baldness forums will do it but we aren't representative.

I didn't say the new treatment will cost $1k. I said that's probably where the biggest profit would be made in the long term if it could be done. I mean the REALLY long term. Cheaper = wider pool of buyers. More buyers = baldness becomes less socially acceptable, which eventually increases the pressure on the remaining men with hair loss to pay up. That's what happens when a cosmetic treatment becomes mass-affordable. It's optional for the first generation but it becomes a requirement for subsequent generations.

Costs them more then 1k to manufacture this.

@pegasus2 - here's a quick list of at least some of the (mostly-independent) sources of uncertainty

tl;dr - even if you were 80% certain in the truth/falsehood of each statement individually in favour of HMI-115...
there'd only be a 10-20% chance that A,B,C above are all true, as an upper limit

1. it's an uncontrolled, non-human, monkey study. Drug has never been studied in men for any indication
2. 100% of the available information is coming from a Chinese biotech startup's patent applications and press releases (just as they were seeking early investors) - this looks like their only product, it *has* to succeed at any cost
3. patents do not need to contain scientific truths, just legal truths. It's why there's so many patents for perpetual motions machines (but I'm not lobbying to have the nuclear power plant down my street to be shut down)
4. the proposed mechanism by which it mediates the effect is through a poorly understood hormone in men, and in the hair follicle specifically
5. the effect it has may overlap substantially with finasteride/min, so the marginal benefit may not be that large vs untreated men with Androgenetic Alopecia
6. because it's a poorly understood hormone (especially in men), the side effects are hard to predict - these alone could end development
7. delays in drug development are extremely common, as is promising drugs being killed for non-scientific (read: financial) reasons
8. prospects of getting this early on the grey market, or off-label, are extremely low in the next 5+ years
9. by the time it's available, there may be better treatments available or this treatment may not work that well since he's now older

1. Funny how you're just arguing semantics here. It has been studied on humans, and we know it's immediately safe in terms of pure toxicology which is basically what every phase 1 aims to prove.
2. Again, no. The phase 1 was conducted by Bayer in the EU. The original patent was also completed by Bayer afaik.
3. Wrongish. Patents use legalese to conceal the scientific truths. If the real science isn't in the patent then they are not protected from infringement.
6. Highly doubt it ends development or even really has an effect on development. The impact it will have is that the trial structure of phase 2 will have to be very specific to address the gaps of having no males in the phase 1. Could be the reason it's delayed now (due to trial structure/approvals), but once the trial starts something pretty bad would have to happen to halt the trial.
7. True, but this drug won't get killed for financial reasons overall, just potential for one indication (like Androgenetic Alopecia). They've already got the funding to amortize the costs through development and don't have to consider opportunity costs of other compounds.
8. Probably not easy, but I've already seen it for sale on chem sites at a very steep price.
9. Doubt it, they would already be at a similar stage of development. Unless something goes wrong, this would probably be one of the bigger things to come in the next 5-10 years. Discoveries will/can be made that might make this irrelevant soon after, but nothing else substantial is already in humans and gearing for phase 2 other then the AR degrader, which we know wont regrow. Cloning/hair multiplication could achieve this, but that's still surgery and not really what most people want.

 

[LouisSarkozy]

Later next year/early 2023

thanks you so much man honetly i'm so far gone i got a buzzcut today and feel so depressed i'm nw4 now but since using om and minoxidil i'm full of vellus hair down to my juvenile hairline but they are just not f*****g growing to it's useless cosmetically and the minoxidil is really f*****g my skin up ...... should i just keep using it just to avoid fibrosis till the results are published? i'm so tired of looking wrinkly old af on top of being bald but if it can turns my vellus terminal i'd gladly wait 1/1.5more years to see if it can turns vellus terminal . so sorry again but that's the only thing that keep me going

 

[trialAcc]

thanks for the reply - whether you agree or disagree with each specific point, I think I made my overall point that it's a useful framework for a discussion vs trolls confidently slinging crap back and forth without knowing why they believe what they believe

like @poopfeast420 you make good counterpoints...if this were the beginning of the thread I'd engage more but at this late stage it just looks like a wasted opportunity until more results are available

but I just want to reply to your quoted point and emphasize that I'm not saying it can't possibly work - just that the fact that it hasn't been used even once in the target group (human men) for the indication (Androgenetic Alopecia) introduces at minimum the tiniest bit of uncertainty that it will work as well as hoped and be mostly side-effect free

can we at least agree on that?

No drug/therapy is side effect free, but yes I agree and I agreed with you in my post. The delay in trial announcement is probably because they got feedback from the regulators about constructing the trial to contain secondary end points that address the lack of male testing in phase 1.

 

[pegasus2]

thanks you so much man honetly i'm so far gone i got a buzzcut today and feel so depressed i'm nw4 now but since using om and minoxidil i'm full of vellus hair down to my juvenile hairline but they are just not f*****g growing to it's useless cosmetically and the minoxidil is really f*****g my skin up ...... should i just keep using it just to avoid fibrosis till the results are published? i'm so tired of looking wrinkly old af on top of being bald but if it can turns my vellus terminal i'd gladly wait 1/1.5more years to see if it can turns vellus terminal . so sorry again but that's the only thing that keep me going

Yes, minoxidil will prevent fibrosis and keep those follicles intact for HMI to restore.

 

[pegasus2]

instead of trolls who are 100% sure it will or won't work and call you an idiot for even suggesting there's at least some question marks

I'm not 100% sure it will work. I'm close to 100% sure that it will work better than minoxidil. I'm not close to 100% sure that it will completely reverse hair loss. Also I'm not a troll, I've done more research on this than you, and posted more substantive information on the topic than anyone here, especially you. All you post is conjecture. You are the very definition of midwit thinking you can mathematically define the odds of a treatment working as if it's all neutral data points and you have them all. Statistics nerds are the worst. If you were truly to stastically model the odds of it working they would be under 1%. Obviously 1% of it working are ridiculous, so let's make this about biology instead of statistics(aka astrology for nerds) . Of course you can't statistically model something like this when you don't even understand all the variables. Even I don't understand all the variables, no one does. It's the height of human arrogance to think that you can statistically model something like this accurately. Watch the Star Trek DS9 episode "Statistical Probabilities" for a better illustration of the point I'm trying to make. You have much in common with the arrogant Dr Bashir whose hubris almost cost them the war

What I do know is the most important data points are that macaques have the same hair loss as we do, androgenetic alopecia. They are biologically very similar to us and most drugs work the same in them as in humans. Every hair loss treatment tested on both them and humans has worked the same in both. I also know all the important pathways in Androgenetic Alopecia that the PRLR regulates. Based on this I'm highly confident that it will work, but there are no guarantees as there are always missing variables, and one of those variables could be crucial.

 

[LouisSarkozy]

Yes, minoxidil will prevent fibrosis and keep those follicles intact for HMI to restore.t

thanks you so much you're alway gibing hope you have no idea how much it means ... last question i swear but even if it's not a cure do you think since you think it' more powerfull than min , will it permits to keep topical min and oral min gains if i decide to stop those 2 would hmi maintains the gains so my skin could recover the damage while i keep the hair grown by topical min and om? thanks 1000 time

 

[fashy]

thanks you so much you're alway gibing hope you have no idea how much it means ... last question i swear but even if it's not a cure do you think since you think it' more powerfull than min , will it permits to keep topical min and oral min gains if i decide to stop those 2 would hmi maintains the gains so my skin could recover the damage while i keep the hair grown by topical min and om? thanks 1000 time

Dude, I don't want to be mean but don't hold pegasus or anybody else on this forum as a be all end all of hair loss authority. None of us here are researches or scientists working closely on the development of these drugs and none of us can answer with 100% confidence anything about any of these treatments. Even the scientists developing these drugs don't know anything before they complete their clinical trials. What pegasus knows you can know if you put the time in to read about the treatment, what it targets and why this certain root issue may be relevant for hair loss. You're asking him things he can't possibly know or predict and he doesn't have some secret or forbidden knowledge none of us on this forum have.

Read the threads, educate yourself and don't put all of your stock on one potential treatment as we all have done this multiple times in the past only to be sorely disappointed afterwards. If you are already doing everything possible to combat your hair loss, stop obsessing over new treatments and their possible timelines and just accept that you are at the mercy of greater powers than you. Don't depress yourself over it and go and try to live a normal life until hopefully a worthwhile hair loss alternative becomes actual reality.

 

[pegasus2]

thanks you so much you're alway gibing hope you have no idea how much it means ... last question i swear but even if it's not a cure do you think since you think it' more powerfull than min , will it permits to keep topical min and oral min gains if i decide to stop those 2 would hmi maintains the gains so my skin could recover the damage while i keep the hair grown by topical min and om? thanks 1000 time

I would think so, but we'll have to see.

 

[John Difool]

I always wonder why people think that hair you grow with minoxidil are minoxidil dependent. To me, they are just like other hair. It's the way you can keep them that matters, not the way you got them.

 

[LouisSarkozy]

I always wonder why people think that hair you grow with minoxidil are minoxidil dependent. To me, they are just like other hair. It's the way you can keep them that matters, not the way you got them.

and how would you maintain minoxidil grown hair if i may ask?

 

[Chads don't bald]

I always wonder why people think that hair you grow with minoxidil are minoxidil dependent. To me, they are just like other hair. It's the way you can keep them that matters, not the way you got them.

Can minoxidil hairs be maintained by finasteride if you stop minoxidil?

 

[Seuxin]

Can minoxidil hairs be maintained by finasteride if you stop minoxidil?

Not really !

 

[Dimitri001]

Regarding HMI's price, if it turns out to work, someone will surely test whether small molecule inhibitors work (not necessarily SMI-6) and if those work the same, well those can, presumably, be manufactured for cheaper than an antibody. And if they just give results somewhere close to HMI, perhaps they can drive HMI's price down.

Costs them more then 1k to manufacture this.

1. Funny how you're just arguing semantics here. It has been studied on humans, and we know it's immediately safe in terms of pure toxicology which is basically what every phase 1 aims to prove.
2. Again, no. The phase 1 was conducted by Bayer in the EU. The original patent was also completed by Bayer afaik.
3. Wrongish. Patents use legalese to conceal the scientific truths. If the real science isn't in the patent then they are not protected from infringement.
6. Highly doubt it ends development or even really has an effect on development. The impact it will have is that the trial structure of phase 2 will have to be very specific to address the gaps of having no males in the phase 1. Could be the reason it's delayed now (due to trial structure/approvals), but once the trial starts something pretty bad would have to happen to halt the trial.
7. True, but this drug won't get killed for financial reasons overall, just potential for one indication (like Androgenetic Alopecia). They've already got the funding to amortize the costs through development and don't have to consider opportunity costs of other compounds.
8. Probably not easy, but I've already seen it for sale on chem sites at a very steep price.
9. Doubt it, they would already be at a similar stage of development. Unless something goes wrong, this would probably be one of the bigger things to come in the next 5-10 years. Discoveries will/can be made that might make this irrelevant soon after, but nothing else substantial is already in humans and gearing for phase 2 other then the AR degrader, which we know wont regrow. Cloning/hair multiplication could achieve this, but that's still surgery and not really what most people want.

What kinda price are we talking about?

 

[trialAcc]

Regarding HMI's price, if it turns out to work, someone will surely test whether small molecule inhibitors work (not necessarily SMI-6) and if those work the same, well those can, presumably, be manufactured for cheaper than an antibody. And if they just give results somewhere close to HMI, perhaps they can drive HMI's price down.


What kinda price are we talking about?

2k or more for a micro dose.

 

[John Difool]

I think its' already happening with UC, no?

 

[John Difool]

Can minoxidil hairs be maintained by finasteride if you stop minoxidil?

Minoxidil must be used indefinitely for continued support of existing hair follicles and the maintenance of any experienced hair regrowth