The 5-year estimate

[rockandroll]

I consistently run into mentions of there being a real solution (whether due to hair cloning or to neogenesis of hair follicles) to male pattern baldness in approximately 5 years or so. Now, the question is (and answers from forum veterans would be greatly appreciated here), how the hell do we know this? Is this a general consensus on behalf of hair surgeons or companies dealing with hair loss? Or is this believing the first three dudes that came out and said "I'll have a cure in about 5 years, just hang on tight?"

Now, the reason why I ask is that I like to rely on solid data. Propecia and Rogaine keep my hopes up because they're based on scientific trials, and I'm definitely willing to keep the faith in such products. But if I keep hearing "there's going to be a solution in 5 years" for the next two decades, I'm probably going to be pretty disappointed that the promised "cure" never will arrive.

 

[Freestyle]

Well, even if they did find a realistic cure, you need to anticipate that it will take the same amount of time for it to reach the market.

If someone finds a cure in 5 years time, it will take at least 5 years of trials and approval processes until the general public can use it.

I think there will be a cure though. Most likely some type of gene therapy. Or maybe someone will stumble upon EXACTLY what causes hair loss and develop a pill for it.

We'll see.

 

[socks]

They cant cure the common cold, cancer, AIDs, or any other number of illnesses... Yet some honestly believe the cure for hairloss is going to be found anytime soon? I think not my friend, I think not.

Want proof? Look at Captin Picard of the Star Ship Enterprise! They dont even have a cure yet in the 24th century (or whenever the hell STTNG is based in).

 

[chewbaca]

I think u all have to keep an open mind here..like someone said, the cure will most likely be some sort of gene theraphy....something to do with cloning, cells ect....and judging from the recent encouraging discoveries in stem cell research, cloning ect.i believe some sort of alternative if not cure will be available like HM ect...For the info, such theraphies are already available for heart patients (regeneration of blood vessesls) and others...it is just a matter of time....

 

[SE-freak]

As I have said before,

the cure will be available 4 to 5 years after the question is asked.

 

[Boru]

As I have said before,

the cure will be available 4 to 5 years after the question is asked.

How come some of my hair is growing back, and I have been contacted by a few others who are also growing hair back? It is a combination of the available treatments which is working for me. Granted, after only fifteen months I only have partial results. Perhaps someone should study me to find the cure, because I seem to have "accidentally on purpose" stumbled on a kind of cure. It may be a partial cure, or it may continue to improve.
When I contact dermatologists and other specialists, they just won't believe me, and it astounds me that some members here say I am scamming. The five year question is this, what will my new hair look like after the five year regrowth cycle?
Boru

 

[Boru]

Well done.
There are mysteries under the skin, yet to be fully understood.
Boru

 

[The Gardener]

"There will be a cure in 5 to 6 years"

"We will have a table available in 10-15 minutes"

"I'll call you in a bit"

"I'll see you tomorrow"

"Your car should be done by 2pm"

"No, honey... that dress does not make you look fat"

"I promise I will NOT raise taxes"

"Looks like the Easter Bunny was here!"

 

[global]

I have been using these forums since 2002 and back then they were saying the same thing

"HM in 5 years"

Now they are still saying

"HM in 5 years"

I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

[michael barry]

Ive wondered aloud if they could implant stem cells in your thigh, and when they grow (direction has been a major problem in trials), reimplant them into your head, ensuring proper direction.....

Anybody read any more on the research?

 

[DjSap]

Trials usually last 10+ years in most countries, so expecting a cure in 5 years is not realistic. First a company will usually make it public that is has something going on. If public then after phase 1 and if startup then most likely before that, then we will have to wait about 10 years for it to hit the market.

 

[scottie311]

The cure will probablly be something more like a vacine...the younger men of society without hairloss yet will benefit from this and the rest of us already with hairloss will stand out like "freaks" even more for the rest of our lives...

 

[Britannia]

First a company will usually make it public that is has something going on.

No they would not! What commercial sense does this make?
If theyve got something "going on" they will keep their lips sealed until the patent office have got their interests protected!

 

[Dave001]

Look at Captin Picard of the Star Ship Enterprise! They dont even have a cure yet in the 24th century (or whenever the hell STTNG is based in).

Captain's log, stardate whatever: a cure for male pattern baldness is anticipated within the next 5 years [translated from Trekian units].

 

[TheOliviaTremorControl]

I believe this "miracle cure" that everyone keeps estimating is "5 years away" is something called "Hair Multiplication" (also called "hair cloning", even though it isn't really cloning).

This is the most probable suspect of the "miracle cure, only 5 years away" because every article I read about it, a Ph D somewhere always says that magic number.
Basically, it isn't a pill or some kind of gene therapy thing, its a form of hair transplant. But, whereas in a regular transplant, you use donor hairs from your non-balding areas of the head, in hair Multiplication, the key factor is that they have figured out how to multiply your hair in a labratory, using a small batch of donor hairs, and turning it into a LARGER batch.

So, think hair transplant but with a theoretically limitless supply of donor hairs. You could get hair thicker than you ever had in your teens. So thick as to be bullet proof? Perhaps... but also, perhaps not.

Anyway, I'd imagine the cost of this to be at LEAST twice as much as what a hair transplant costs right now. I mean, this is borderline cloning. That sh*t aint easy. I'd predict it to be five times as expensive as hair transplants... but what do I know? I'm a kid with a computer.

Sources:
Nov. 4, 2004 - http://www.webmd.com/content/article/96/103836.htm

HairLossTalk.com exclusive (2004) - http://www.hairlosstalk.com/newsletter/ ... le&sid=240
(read some of the comments at the bottom of each article page, they are pretty erotic)

HairLossTalk.com 2000 (followed the links near the bottom to progress further) - http://www.hairlosstalk.com/newsletter/article19.htm
Hey HairLossTalk.com

 

[Britannia]

Looking at the list of investors on the Intercytex website (one of the main players in HM), theres some very big influential companies putting MILLIONS of pounds into the new technologies being developed in HM. Now Im not saying that a "miracle cure" is going to be 5 years away or 10 or 15 or whatever, but we can assume that Intercytex have some kind of expected date when HM will hit the market. I would think they would need this to help them secure investors.

 

[TheOliviaTremorControl]

Now Im not saying that a "miracle cure" is going to be 5 years away or 10 or 15 or whatever,...

Going back on what I said earlier, even if this cure is X number of years away, how much longer do you think it will be until average working joe can afford it?

 

[Dave001]

How come some of my hair is growing back, and I have been contacted by a few others who are also growing hair back? It is a combination of the available treatments which is working for me. Granted, after only fifteen months I only have partial results. Perhaps someone should study me to find the cure, because I seem to have "accidentally on purpose" stumbled on a kind of cure. It may be a partial cure, or it may continue to improve.

Some regrowth is quite common, even in single agent clinical trials. In fact, nearly all of the clinical trials for Androgenetic Alopecia are based on one treatment.

From reading forums, it's easy to see how one might be led to believe that a combination of 999 treatments is necessary to merely slow the progression of Androgenetic Alopecia, but it would be a mistake to think that is what happens to the majority of people. It isn't. You are hearing from a vocal minority. It's always the case that the whiners ensure their opinions are known to everyone who isn't interested in hearing them. If you're going to give anecdotes any consideration at all, I would think seriously about soliciting opinions from physicians who have treated a large number of patients, and who don't have a financial bias or interest in the outcome (that is often a problem to some extent even with controlled trials). Even then it is still difficult draw any conclusions.

 

[Britannia]

Now Im not saying that a "miracle cure" is going to be 5 years away or 10 or 15 or whatever,...

Going back on what I said earlier, even if this cure is X number of years away, how much longer do you think it will be until average working joe can afford it?

It depends what you mean by "average joe". They certainely wouldnt want to produce a product that was only available to the super rich. They would want a treatment for male pattern baldness that can be sold to everyday folk.
IMO, that is where Merck really messed up. Propecia is very very VERY overpriced. As a result they instantly wiped out millions of potential customers who would love to use Propecia but simply couldnt afford it. And the people who did take Propecia learned that you could get Proscar a lot cheaper a simply split the pills. Then Cipla came along with their $7 a month finasteride solution....
If Merck had just priced Propecia fairly in the first place they wouldnt have the problem of being unable to recoup the money they invested in developing Propecia. Im sure any future companies producing a treatement will not want to make the mistake Merck made. This only my opinion. But I know if Merck sold Propecia for a reasonable price of say £15 a month they wouldnt have the problem of losing customers to cheap generics.