HM
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DaSand
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The year we will get hair back will be 2010 or afterwards. But it's possible Intercytex can skip Phase III depending on Phase II results and regulatory review and can have small-scale commercialization in 2008 based on a past Presentation. The only thing is a waiting list will happen and the cost is well no one honestly knows.
MidnightFlyer
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In 2008 they will announce that HM will be available in about 10 years.
hairwegoagain
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:agree:
HM showing up anytime soon, if at all = :jackit:
HM showing up anytime soon, if at all = :jackit:
HM is still "a few years away" as usual.
The only difference is that this time it seems like it might actually be true.
Intercytex has a form of HM that's making it through real clincial trials now. (Why anyone seriously believed that HM was only "3-5 years away" back when it hadn't even started trials yet is beyond me. The trials reliably take most of a decade.)
The ICX treatment is not very consistent yet, but it passed all the safety concerns in phase#1 and I think it has shown at least some amount of hair regrowth on every single patient in the phase#2 trials. Some only a little but others got dramatic gains. (The assumption is that this consistency problem is only a matter of how many times they have to work on your head, not what is ultimately achievable on you. We assume this right now.)
They're knee-deep in phase#2 trials and they will have another update in mid-2008. This may result in either more phase#2 trials or maybe a move to phase#3. Intercytex has talked about possibly a limited commercialization during the phase#3 trials. (And the company has already done commercial phase#3 trials with other drugs in the past.)
So like I said above, same "3-5 years" as always, just much better reasoning to think it's actually true this time.
The only difference is that this time it seems like it might actually be true.
Intercytex has a form of HM that's making it through real clincial trials now. (Why anyone seriously believed that HM was only "3-5 years away" back when it hadn't even started trials yet is beyond me. The trials reliably take most of a decade.)
The ICX treatment is not very consistent yet, but it passed all the safety concerns in phase#1 and I think it has shown at least some amount of hair regrowth on every single patient in the phase#2 trials. Some only a little but others got dramatic gains. (The assumption is that this consistency problem is only a matter of how many times they have to work on your head, not what is ultimately achievable on you. We assume this right now.)
They're knee-deep in phase#2 trials and they will have another update in mid-2008. This may result in either more phase#2 trials or maybe a move to phase#3. Intercytex has talked about possibly a limited commercialization during the phase#3 trials. (And the company has already done commercial phase#3 trials with other drugs in the past.)
So like I said above, same "3-5 years" as always, just much better reasoning to think it's actually true this time.
I basically agree with Cal,
However, the ph2 results we had earlier were not too encouraging were they? But they left us off at a good spot because they were able to improve the results with a slight change of the procedure and that is the WHOLE point of the ph2 studies.
They KNOW they can multiple cells and GROW hair, they know that and they have done that and they have even photographed the damned thing and put it out there for us to see.
So the ph2 trials probably started off at "let's just try the most crude and basic way to do this and see what it gives us, then we will refine the method step by step to see how or if it improves", the ph2 is not over yet, it will be in about six months.
By then they will hopefully have found even better changes to the procedure.
So the thinking is; IF the additional procedure changes give very very good results we could possibly see an early-commercialization (2008-2009) with rolling ph3 trials. I mean why not? They figured the procedure out, and the ph1 revealed no health-risks.
Worst thing that can happen is that they dont find the right details for the procedure on ph2, and they must do another ph2 to find it and if they dont then this HM@ICX thing is in trouble.
I dont think there will be an early-commercialization, I think they will need another ph2 to be sure with what they are doing, and after that one they will do something like an early-commercialization in the sense that it is pre-ph3-release but not 2008/2009-early but rather 2010-2012 early. Then by 2015-2017 the thing will have been perfected =)
However, the ph2 results we had earlier were not too encouraging were they? But they left us off at a good spot because they were able to improve the results with a slight change of the procedure and that is the WHOLE point of the ph2 studies.
They KNOW they can multiple cells and GROW hair, they know that and they have done that and they have even photographed the damned thing and put it out there for us to see.
So the ph2 trials probably started off at "let's just try the most crude and basic way to do this and see what it gives us, then we will refine the method step by step to see how or if it improves", the ph2 is not over yet, it will be in about six months.
By then they will hopefully have found even better changes to the procedure.
So the thinking is; IF the additional procedure changes give very very good results we could possibly see an early-commercialization (2008-2009) with rolling ph3 trials. I mean why not? They figured the procedure out, and the ph1 revealed no health-risks.
Worst thing that can happen is that they dont find the right details for the procedure on ph2, and they must do another ph2 to find it and if they dont then this HM@ICX thing is in trouble.
I dont think there will be an early-commercialization, I think they will need another ph2 to be sure with what they are doing, and after that one they will do something like an early-commercialization in the sense that it is pre-ph3-release but not 2008/2009-early but rather 2010-2012 early. Then by 2015-2017 the thing will have been perfected =)
Funny I came across this from 2006
http://www.cambridgegateway.com/news/20 ... 270106.htm
Nick Higgins, the chief executive, said that the fundraising would see the company through to at least 2008, when a version of ICX-TRC could be close to regulatory approval: “This is an elegant and sophisticated science — it’s not back-of-an-airline-magazine stuff."
http://www.cambridgegateway.com/news/20 ... 270106.htm
Nick Higgins, the chief executive, said that the fundraising would see the company through to at least 2008, when a version of ICX-TRC could be close to regulatory approval: “This is an elegant and sophisticated science — it’s not back-of-an-airline-magazine stuff."
20 years ago they said hair cloning would have been here for years already. 10 years ago they said it was about 5 years away. 5 years ago they said it was about 3 more years away. Two years ago they said it would be here about now.
They're always calling the release dates prematurely, but the gap has also been steadily closing over time.
They're always calling the release dates prematurely, but the gap has also been steadily closing over time.
What is more important than what is being said is who is saying it.
I for one trust Kemp & ICX way more than I do Washenik. I don't know any of them personally but I get the feeling he isn't 100% honest when on TV. BUT from what I know now they are more or less saying the same thing (2010).
Same thing with this costarelis WNT wound-stuff, I think I read about it somewhere that it might be out in a couple of years, I wouldn't really pay too much attention to that since they havent even started with their trials yet, not even their pre-clinical? So, what they are saying about it doesnt make it worth a god damn bit, on the other hand we got HM out on ph2.
I for one trust Kemp & ICX way more than I do Washenik. I don't know any of them personally but I get the feeling he isn't 100% honest when on TV. BUT from what I know now they are more or less saying the same thing (2010).
Same thing with this costarelis WNT wound-stuff, I think I read about it somewhere that it might be out in a couple of years, I wouldn't really pay too much attention to that since they havent even started with their trials yet, not even their pre-clinical? So, what they are saying about it doesnt make it worth a god damn bit, on the other hand we got HM out on ph2.
RaginDemon
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cal said:
with this rate you stated, it is really coming within 1 yr or 2, despiste the fact they have been lying all alone.
Eureka
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No one honestly knows and there are no guarantees Since as it's been stated they have been saying it is going to come out for decades now I personally keep reading 09-2012 and I hope that by 2012 It will be out But no one knows what the first versions are going to be like, It's pretty safe to say that even after the first version comes out You'll have to have pretty deep pockets to have it done, Specially since bosely may be the company you have to go through to get it.
But it's all just a load of guesstimation It could come out in late 08 and be 5000 bucks or it could be stalled off another couple decades.
They need a team of bald guys behind the developments of Hairloss drugs and procedures, It would get done a whole helluva lot faster.
But it's all just a load of guesstimation It could come out in late 08 and be 5000 bucks or it could be stalled off another couple decades.
They need a team of bald guys behind the developments of Hairloss drugs and procedures, It would get done a whole helluva lot faster.
SoThatsLife
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Eureka said:
The chief researcher at Intercytex is bald...
Just wait, and when it comes out, wait for bosley to mess up..and then when top docs like alvi armani and cole gets involved and gives you the thumps up..do it
elguapo
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I am hoping that when HM comes out, there won't be much "art" involved in the process of injecting the resulting cultured/multiplied cells into the bald areas of the scalp. I am hoping that it will be idiot-proof, that anybody will be able to do it without botching it up.
From what I understand, Hair Transplantation isn't perfect, and the end results rely on the skills of the surgeon. I think if the clinical tirals show that it HM works in all participants, and then suddenly after being commercialized by, say, Bosley, they mess it up, then heads will roll.
I am also hoping that if the results are thinner than expected hairs in some areas, they will simply be able to schedule another appointment, and inject more cells into the area for further coverage, and voila! Can you imagine!?! :jump:
From what I understand, Hair Transplantation isn't perfect, and the end results rely on the skills of the surgeon. I think if the clinical tirals show that it HM works in all participants, and then suddenly after being commercialized by, say, Bosley, they mess it up, then heads will roll.
I am also hoping that if the results are thinner than expected hairs in some areas, they will simply be able to schedule another appointment, and inject more cells into the area for further coverage, and voila! Can you imagine!?! :jump:
There are three stages to the clinical trial process. It usually takes a year or two per trial, and the whole process of all three trials takes most of a decade.
Ever since the beginning of the HM effort, there seems to be this feeling in the air that the rules don't apply to HM. Some people were believing the "3-5 years" quotes before they had even started on stage#1.
I'm sorry but the rules still apply no matter how much we wish they didn't. HM is currently in the middle of stage#2 and it still has the entire stage#3 ahead of it before it can hit the market. You do the math.
It's true that ICX might proceed with "limited commercialization" during stage#3.
But be realistic -- millions of men would pay money to get their hair back right now. How do your connections & money resources measure up? And the first cases are still gonna be in the learning stage even if you did get in. The BIG results might not even be there yet.
We get hair when they're doing true commercialization after phase#3 in a couple more years.
Ever since the beginning of the HM effort, there seems to be this feeling in the air that the rules don't apply to HM. Some people were believing the "3-5 years" quotes before they had even started on stage#1.
I'm sorry but the rules still apply no matter how much we wish they didn't. HM is currently in the middle of stage#2 and it still has the entire stage#3 ahead of it before it can hit the market. You do the math.
It's true that ICX might proceed with "limited commercialization" during stage#3.
But be realistic -- millions of men would pay money to get their hair back right now. How do your connections & money resources measure up? And the first cases are still gonna be in the learning stage even if you did get in. The BIG results might not even be there yet.
We get hair when they're doing true commercialization after phase#3 in a couple more years.
sphlanx2006
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Much truth in the above post. I too, do not believe that it is anywhere near 2008 or 2009. There is half phase2 and a whole phase3. And i would bet that phase 3 will not start directly after ph2 is finished. And, since it is a completely new technology, they would probably want to run a ph2b or ph2c trial so they can figure some things out.
I would say 2012 to be one of the most optimistic release dates for a final and well-working product.
I would say 2012 to be one of the most optimistic release dates for a final and well-working product.
Hans Gruber
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elguapo said:
a home kit! now thatd be good 'get your hair back in the privacy of your own home' that WILL happen one day(unless of course they just cure this shot once and for all )
DaSand
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libertine said:elguapo said:
a home kit! now thatd be good 'get your hair back in the privacy of your own home' that WILL happen one day(unless of course they just cure this shot once and for all )
That would be interesting, do-it-yourself HM! By then, a gene therapy shot might come in.
sphlanx2006
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Gene-shot? Sound interesting. Perhaps we should enter something like these cryonic things were you freeze, and wake up 50 years later. At least HM will be out by then!
uncomfortable man
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I would be hesitant to jump on the HM bandwagon when it first comes out because we all know the first generation of anything is too expensive for results that will only be improved on when the price goes down. As far as idiot proofing the technique, I think it will be easier to execute HM than hair transplant. They are injecting cells under the skin and letting your body do the rest. T