Do Any Posters See Any Hope For Follica?

[NewUser]

He's definitely a smart guy. It is hard to predict the future especially with biotech, a relatively new sector of the economy with so few commercial successes so far. I think it is merely playing it safe to suggest that there will be few successes in the immediate near future. It is easy to bet against a few small biotech startups still in the clinical trials stage. Odds are probably not in favour of commercial successes happening within the next two years. Much safer to suggest we won't see an effective treatment for hair loss until the early to mid 2020s.

Therefore I will go out on a limb and predict that a less than perfect but commercially viable treatment(better than min and-or finasteride) will at least be known about and publicised by early to mid 2018 and eventually offered to the public sometime in 2019 if not sooner. And I predict it will be Follica leading the way. It will be important for a company like Follica to enter the market first to establish customer trust, loyalty, "the brand" and so on. Newer technologies will have to be significantly better and cost effective compared to Follica's "RAIN" in order to shelve RAIN as an inferior method for restoring hair. If Follica goes unchallenged for years as a treatment for hair loss, Follica will be taking something important from other companies stalled at the gate. If Follica is more cost effective than the other guys, then it'll be adios to the more expensive "betamax" hair technology and hello VHS time for Follica.

 

[Gone]

Being proven wrong on these forums is often far more gratifying than being right

 

[NewUser]

I hope that Tsuji's hair primordiums tech will be realised. I also hope that Tsuji will be in good company with other hair biologists able to achieve the same or very similar and made available to people who have few to no hair follicles to revive, and for those with scalp conditions which make neo-genesis very difficult to impossible without implants or injection of hair germ cells. Growing hair from germ cells is admittedly the holy grail of hair biology but not necessarily from commercial POV. Similar clinical trials are happening for hearing loss where hair cells in the cochlear organ are broken off and never grow back again. A year ago they were able to restore as much as 20% of hearing loss in deaf lab animals. Today a company is claiming near full restoration of hearing in tests with lab animals. It's at least very encouraging. And, hopefully, scientists will be able to one day find the holy grail for blindness. That is, to be able regrow retinas with their specialised rods and cones cell structures that enable colour vision and night vision.

I also hope that people will have more than just the best and most expensive hair growth technology available to them, like betamax-vhs and CDs-DVDs-blueray-netflix are examples where technologies were improved and made cost effective for the widest range of consumers. Similarly for the widest range of people with common andro-pattern hair loss, that is where most of the profits will be.

 

[KO1]

Follica RAIN will be the original iPhone, an innovative creation, but it won't be until future iterations that the capabilities will be truly developed. Right now it will probably be DR+minoxidil. In the future there will be more topicals and better wounding modalities.

 

[luiza]

I dont see how Follica's treatment will be merely dermarolling. I think it would be very stupid of Cots to take this long to bring a new treatment to the market that is basically doing something you can do NOW at home. Some clinics already offer dermarolling treatment for the scalp as well.
I don't believe he's the "King of hair loss" as some here think but, again, I also don't think he would be stupid to present this as a solution to our balding heads.
No one who's been losing their hair for a few years and has basic knowledge about the upcoming treatments would be willing to pay him whatever the amount will be to get their head dermarolled and minoxidil applied. It's just stupid.

Some people claim here it's gonna be dermabrasion but I don't know where they've got this information from either.
All I know is that I really hope he surprises us all and show up soon saying they now can make those vellus hairs they created become terminant. *dream*

 

[NewUser]

I dont see how Follica's treatment will be merely dermarolling.

I think RAIN is a procedure and will be at least two things:

1. a type of dermabrasion that is performed with a patented device(not available through Amazon etc), and so therefore we will need to have it done at a clinic and,
2. a patented compound applied to the scalp after the dermabrasion procedure

As for what the compound will consist of, I think it could have something to do with FGF9

Results were published in Nature Medicine.

Follica plans to test FGF9 as a potential component of its follicle neogenesis technology.
...
Cotsarelis told SciBX that the next steps for this research include testing the effects of FGF9 on human skin in xenograft models and then in the clinic.

That was from June 2013. It's 3.5 years later. I think it's possible we could see this procedure sometime in 2018, with or without their patented FGF9 technology.

 

[luiza]

I think RAIN is a procedure and will be at least two things:

1. a type of dermabrasion that is performed with a patented device(not available through Amazon etc), and so therefore we will need to have it done at a clinic and,
2. a patented compound applied to the scalp after the dermabrasion procedure

As for what the compound will consist of, I think it could have something to do with FGF9



That was from June 2013. It's 3.5 years later. I think it's possible we could see this procedure sometime in 2018, with or without their patented FGF9 technology.

Thanks for the insight.
So you believe the compounds will be FGF9 + Minoxidil? Have they tried anything else?

On the website it says there will be two devices. The one they're gonna use at the office (probably dermabrasion) and the home device that consists basically in an applicator (???), by the looks. And it seems like the applicator somehow is gonna be linked to a phone app that is gonna show you your "progress". Crazy stuff (if it works lol).

 

[Follisket]

And it seems like the applicator somehow is gonna be linked to a phone app that is gonna show you your "progress". Crazy stuff (if it works lol).

And sadly, phone apps like that are precisely the sort of gimmicky stuff that makes me question the entire treatment.

 

[luiza]

And sadly, phone apps like that are precisely the sort of gimmicky stuff that makes me question the entire treatment.

Same, unfortunately.

We don't need apps, we just need hair.

 

[Swoop]

As shown in Table 7 below, all four of the modes of integumental perturbation produced activated hair follicles. Dermabrasion (using the Aseptico Econo-Dermabrader from Tiemann and Company) resulted in the highest number of activated follicles, and among the laser treatment modalities, treatment with fractional laser resulted in the highest number of activated follicles. Exemplary results from the dermabrasion study are provided in Figure 23A-D), which demonstrates hair growth in an area of skin of a subject treated with integumental perturbation by dermabrasion ("DA"). Figure 23E demonstrates the pinpoint bleeding achieved immediately after this modality of dermabrasion. Figure 23F provides an image of the skin's epidermal ridges that enclose the vascularized dermal papillae and can

help to illustrate how integumental perturbation, e.g., by dermabrasion to a depth of 100-150 microns, would cause pinpoint bleeding.

 

[NewUser]

And sadly, phone apps like that are precisely the sort of gimmicky stuff that makes me question the entire treatment.

And hopefully some day people with diabetes won't need phone apps to remind them when to take drugs to control insulin and blood sugar.

 

[Swoop]

@NewUser,

It almost has to be a drug that is already approved. AFAIK FDA regulations even require that any new drug entity is registered as a clinical trial on clinicaltrials.gov. Nothing to be seen of Follica that they engaged with some new drug whatsoever.

And regarding FGF9 Cotsarelis already answered that 2 years ago:

6) And finally I brought up fgf9 and its potentials. He believes fgf9 is still a very new discovery with many years of preclinical research ahead of it, when I asked for an estimated date he said at least 10 years. He then went on to mention that just to go from Rogaine liquid to Rogaine foam it took the company over 8 years of studies and data collection before they were allowed to sell it and Minoxidil has been on the market for many years. Now imagine if we are trying to bring out a completely new agent. The timeframes are quite long indeed.

 

[NewUser]

Ok so perhaps they started sometime in 2013-2014?

2013 + 10 = 2023

I'm guessing the treatment will be the first of it's kind unlike slathering minoxidil foam on your scalp at any random time of day? And I think it has to do with Cots' mention of a proprietary skin disruption method to create an “embryonic window” when cells that migrate to help healing are forced to make a decision: Should the cells become ordinary skins cells or a specialised group of cells, a hair follicle?

"There is a window of opportunity in which we can potentially push them to choose the latter, and we believe there are multiple biological pathways to target to enhance this outcome. This regenerative effect is called hair follicle neogenesis”. - George Cotsarelis

Again I am only guessing, but the window of opportunity he mentions probably doesnt last long, maybe just a few weeks to a month or two during which it will be crucially important to apply the special formula to your scalp in order to affect hair follicle neogenesis. The web site also mentions the smartphone app will remind us when to re-order supplies. I think the phone app might serve several purposes but initial timing amd frequency of application of special sauce is necessary to ensure people get the most out of the procedure. I can imagine very many people forgetting if or when they last took a dose of something like a drug or lotion. Lots of people take multiple pills each day and need to refill a personal pill box with each compartment labelled for each day of the week, and sometimes even separate pill compartments for morning, noon and evening pills. That way they can know if and when they've taken pills and how many to ingest the next time. It's an added safety measure, too, and so I think the smartphone app in this case will also serve a useful purpose.

 

[NewUser]

We found that Fgf9 from γδ T cells triggers Wnt expression and subsequent Wnt activation in wound fibroblasts. Through a unique feedback mechanism, activated fibroblasts then express Fgf9, thus amplifying Wnt activity throughout the wound dermis during a crucial phase of skin regeneration. Notably, humans lack a robust population of resident dermal γδ T cells, potentially explaining their inability to regenerate hair after wounding. These findings highlight the essential relationship between the immune system and tissue regeneration. The importance of Fgf9 in hair follicle regeneration suggests that it could be used therapeutically in humans

Apparently, autologous, ex vivo–expanded gamma delta T cells have been tested in clinical trials involving cancer patients, and so there is some safety data established as of 2012.

Recent clinical trials involving the adoptive transfer of autologous, ex vivo–expanded γδ T cells into cancer patients was shown to be safe, even at very large numbers exceeding 109 cells/infusion.2

"Now imagine if we are trying to bring out a completely new agent. The timeframes are quite long indeed." - George Cotsarelis

But what if it is not a completely new agent or small molecule drug but cells taken from one's own body, expanded ex vivo, and re-injected back into scalp tissue? And if it was was shown to be more effective than minoxidil, who would stop them from selling the procedure, the FDA? I don't think so.

 

[KO1]

The minoxidil delivery could be unique, maybe hydrogel. Also potentially interesting topicals are estrogen although unclear if birthing female follicles is feasible.

 

[luiza]

@NewUser,

It almost has to be a drug that is already approved. AFAIK FDA regulations even require that any new drug entity is registered as a clinical trial on clinicaltrials.gov. Nothing to be seen of Follica that they engaged with some new drug whatsoever.

And regarding FGF9 Cotsarelis already answered that 2 years ago:

Why would they update the website for something that isn't gonna come out for at least 6 years?
You think he won't be using FGF9 as part of the treatment then?

If his lotion is Minoxidil only I'll be pretty disappointed

 

[NewUser]

If anyone developed a procedure that actually grew hair, who would stop them from selling it to the public? And we are talking about a billion dollar hair growth procedure no swallowing Loniten or applying marginally effective minoxidil to our scalps. If whatever they have works, someone might as well tape a "kick me" sign to the backs of FDA regulators for all the clout they would have in telling people no you can't buy that for another 5 years. The FDA has done nothing to stop bogus stem cell procedures which don't work. I don't see how they could stop the first effective hair growth procedure from being sold. Big Lol on that one.

 

[NewUser]

Why would they update the website for something that isn't gonna come out for at least 6 years?
You think he won't be using FGF9 as part of the treatment then?

If his lotion is Minoxidil only I'll be pretty disappointed

As the Cots quote a few posts back says, testing a new drug would take a lengthy amount of time. However, the following exconomy quote from June 2013 has excited very many people apparently:

Follica said in its statement that it has already done preclinical tests that combine devices it has created to disrupt the skin with several unspecified “known and novel drugs.” It also claims to have run “a series” of human clinical trials, including a mid-stage study that has caused new hair follicles to be produced in humans.
...
“We’ve been able to consistently show that we crate[sic] substantial new hair follicles in humans, and that’s something that no other approach in hair loss as far as I am aware has been able to achieve,” Olle says. “That’s a critical step.

That was Follica co-founder and PureTech principal Bernat Olle's comment in 2013. It's 3.5 years later, so I think they could be serious about commercialising something by 2018. "Known and novel drugs" to me means both existing as well as new drugs.

http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2013/06/03/hair-raising-follica-study-could-point-to-baldness-therapy/

 

[Xaser94]

According to pure tech's website they are done with phase 2, and will be starting phase 3. The update on their pipeline is def positive. I also think Follica may be the first new androgenetic alopeica treatment to be starting phase 3, or at least in a long time. The closest thing after this to starting phase 3 is Samumed. So I see a lot of hope for it.

 

[KO1]

View attachment 46384

According to pure tech's website they are done with phase 2, and will be starting phase 3. The update on their pipeline is def positive. I also think Follica may be the first new androgenetic alopeica treatment to be starting phase 3, or at least in a long time. The closest thing after this to starting phase 3 is Samumed. So I see a lot of hope for it.

This clown hasn't figured out that they were "done with phase 2" five years ago.