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16 Y/o Guy, Tell Me Straight Up, What Can I Expect In The Coming Years?
- Thread starter Eggman2607
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Short answer: No one knows, but the next 5 years are looking more promising than ever.
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Replicel will come in 2018 and tsuji in 2020-2021, the next 4-5 years are very promising for hair loss suffers.
If you are balding at 16, chances are your hairloss will be significant.
The good news is, you will have better treatments by the time you're in your mid-20s. Histogen is in its final stages in Mexico, Shiseido should be out around 2018 if all goes well, the Brotzu lotion next year (supposedly), Tsuji's treatment, possibly L'oreal and Hairclone.
That being said, there are some realities here:
• If you've lost hair that a transplant can't fix, you'll undoubtedly have to travel to get such a procedure done.
• Completely regenerative treatments like Tsuji's will initially be quite expensive.
• Timelines aren't definitive
• The number of patients these companies will be able to treat annually will be limited for some years. So even if you can afford it and travel, you may not be able to get it done anyway
The way I see it is this:
2010s: You'll have superior maintenance options. For many, this combined with transplants will result in a majority of Androgenetic Alopecia patients being cured.
2020s: Actual hair regeneration becomes a reality, but is expensive and limited in its availibilty.
2030s: Treatments are available globally, at an affordable price and hairloss becomes a choice.
That last one could possibly happen in the mid-late 2020s, but I think it's unlikely given the processes and bureaucracy involved.
The good news is, you will have better treatments by the time you're in your mid-20s. Histogen is in its final stages in Mexico, Shiseido should be out around 2018 if all goes well, the Brotzu lotion next year (supposedly), Tsuji's treatment, possibly L'oreal and Hairclone.
That being said, there are some realities here:
• If you've lost hair that a transplant can't fix, you'll undoubtedly have to travel to get such a procedure done.
• Completely regenerative treatments like Tsuji's will initially be quite expensive.
• Timelines aren't definitive
• The number of patients these companies will be able to treat annually will be limited for some years. So even if you can afford it and travel, you may not be able to get it done anyway
The way I see it is this:
2010s: You'll have superior maintenance options. For many, this combined with transplants will result in a majority of Androgenetic Alopecia patients being cured.
2020s: Actual hair regeneration becomes a reality, but is expensive and limited in its availibilty.
2030s: Treatments are available globally, at an affordable price and hairloss becomes a choice.
That last one could possibly happen in the mid-late 2020s, but I think it's unlikely given the processes and bureaucracy involved.
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If sheseido works than you'll be cured by 2018-2019. I started balding at 16 as well. I'm 20 now about to be 21 and I'm a NW2-2.5. So that's 2 Norwoods over 5 years. It would take 10 years for me to reach a Norwood 4, so it's been slow for me and that's without any treatments.
That's assuming it stays at that pace.
I went from being a NW1 12 months ago to Norwood 2.5
Could take years to reach NW4, could take six months. You can never confidently say how fast it will go.
True but I'm now on minoxidil
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Nothing written in stone but medicines date back 1000s of years and only in the last twenty years were we introduced to Minoxidil and Finasteride (which are both decent treatments). The way it's progressing I think we are in for some great options and treatments in the near future, 5-10 years. However, the "5 years and we have a cure" statement has been repeated a lot in the past decade so be aware that the current research (Replicel, Hair Cloning, etc.) might not work.
1. Look into RU58841. It's a topical androgen fighter. It is "experimental" so most legit places won't mess with it. But it's been through human testing and it was no more dangerous than the officially "safe" internal hair loss drugs like finasteride & dutasteride. It has remained off the market for lack of demand more than anything else. There is billions to be made in restoring lost hair but most of the public won't bother with prevention.
2. The effort-to-reward payoff of our current hair loss drugs is awful. It's ridiculously bad in the big picture. You have a very limited ability to fight this condition in the big picture. Especially in terms of regrowth.
Guy #1 has some hair loss in his genes so he spends 20 years doing everything he can to fight it with hair medications. Twice daily effort, thousands of dollars over the years, possible side effects, etc. After 20 years he efforts have made a difference but he still looks somewhat worse than he started. The payoff is that he doesn't look hugely worse.
Guy #2 has good hair genetics. He eats junkfood, smokes, does drugs, doesn't exercise, and does nothing to protect his hair at all. 20 years later his hair still looks better than guy #1's hair does. Understand this and accept it.
2. The effort-to-reward payoff of our current hair loss drugs is awful. It's ridiculously bad in the big picture. You have a very limited ability to fight this condition in the big picture. Especially in terms of regrowth.
Guy #1 has some hair loss in his genes so he spends 20 years doing everything he can to fight it with hair medications. Twice daily effort, thousands of dollars over the years, possible side effects, etc. After 20 years he efforts have made a difference but he still looks somewhat worse than he started. The payoff is that he doesn't look hugely worse.
Guy #2 has good hair genetics. He eats junkfood, smokes, does drugs, doesn't exercise, and does nothing to protect his hair at all. 20 years later his hair still looks better than guy #1's hair does. Understand this and accept it.
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I agree. Although I'm not so sure if we will get superior maintenance treatments in the coming years. I find that pretty unlikely. But who knows perhaps Shiseido will surprise us or something (I really hope they do).
We should definitely be able to create new hair follicles in 2020's though
. Can't wait.. I would be very surprised if we didn't.
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I agree. Although I'm not so sure if we will get superior maintenance treatments in the coming years. I find that pretty unlikely. But who knows perhaps Shiseido will surprise us or something (I really hope they do).
We should definitely be able to create new hair follicles in 2020's though
At this stage I think the big problem is that most treatments aren't very effective on their own because they only solve small parts of the puzzle, then they just give up and call it a day. I mean putting hair back into an environment that kills hair is like sticking crops into salted earth, unless you clean the earth it's not going to work.
Probably half the reason Brotzu is getting miraculous results is because his is the only treatment that both increases cell count and stops DHT screwing the whole thing up. Pair Shiseido with finasteride, Brotzu or an anti androgen and I'm pretty much certain you'll be able to get a massive amount of hair back, maybe even all of it.
I agree. Although I'm not so sure if we will get superior maintenance treatments in the coming years. I find that pretty unlikely. But who knows perhaps Shiseido will surprise us or something (I really hope they do).
We should definitely be able to create new hair follicles in 2020's though
Hair and other organ regeneration in the 20s and next year you can 3D print OpenBionics' Deus Ex arm in case you've lost one of your flesh ones.
sh*t's gettin' Ghost In The Shell out there
distracted
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I agree. Although I'm not so sure if we will get superior maintenance treatments in the coming years. I find that pretty unlikely. But who knows perhaps Shiseido will surprise us or something (I really hope they do).
We should definitely be able to create new hair follicles in 2020's though
Agreed. We won't see a single cure by 2020 but perhaps can obtain something resembling one with a cocktail of treatments. Brotzu, Histogen, Fidia, Replicel, Sammumed.
constrictedvoid
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What about modifying winlevi for maintenance?
I am going to go against everyone else in this forum, but I say don't rely at all whatsoever on the possibility of future treatments. Every year we have more "cures" and they all have been bs so far. I don't know why people assume that we are going to cure hair loss. Just because it is not a life threatening disease does not mean it is something that will have a cure. Hair loss is extremely complex, and I do not foresee a cure anytime in the near future (or even next 30 years). There have been countless treatments invented in the last few decades, and still the only 2 reliable treatments are finasteride/dutasteride and minoxidil.
Regarding your situation specifically, it is impossible for anyone to say. It is possible you don't even have male pattern baldness right now, but you think you do. There are countless young people that post claiming they are balding when their hairline is perfectly intact. Now if you are losing your hair, it is literally impossible for us to say whether or not you will go full bald. Some people go to a NW2-3 and then stop. Others go the whole route. Its all genetics. Your best bet is looking at your family history. But even then it isn't a sure thing. No one in my family (relatives, etc) started balding before 30, and mine kicked in at 18/19. My hairline started slowly receding at around 18/19, and I mean really slow. Then all of a sudden, and it felt like it came out of nowhere, when I was 20 it went into full gear. Have been taking finasteride & minoxidil since (2.5yrs), and it hasn't even slowed my loss from what I can tell.
If you are worried, go to a dermatologist. I doubt they will prescribe you finasteride at 16 years old, but I would still get a professional opinion. If at 18 it is continuing to get worse, then I would ask to jump on finasteride (and I doubt there will be any other effective treatments out when you are 18).
Countless? Can you name me five?
Hmmm...I mean any of the thousands of hair loss products on the market meant to treat hair loss (hair loss treatments). There is literally way too many to count. Type hair loss product on google, and you will get endless results. Can you name me one that has been successful in the last decade?