The Official HairLossTalk.com 2008 US General Elections thread

[The Gardener]

November 4th is upon us! And with so many different states "in play" for different political/social context reasons, the electoral map is full of different potential combinations.

In this thread, post your electoral map predictions as to how you think the election will turn out. Here is mine:




To create your own map, you can go to this website:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... in/?map=10

Click on the states to change the color. Then,

I did a screen capture and hosted the map on:
http://imageshack.us/

How do you think the election will turn out??

And don't forget to VOTE on Tuesday!

 

[HughJass]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

are the blue states the ones where all the wealth will be redistributed to?

 

[Grantspots]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

It should be reiterated that this is Gardeners personal prediction map only. Not an official one released by any polling agency.

-G-

 

[mulder]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Obama/Biden 401


McCain/Palin 137

 

[JayBear]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Obama - 311, McCain - 227

I think obama takes HI, WA, OR, CA, ME, NH, VT, NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, WI, MD, IL, and DC easily. He manages wins in CO, NM, NV, MN, IA, OH, VA, and MI. I see McCain taking NC and, being a pessimist, I'm going to give him FL. Even with FL going to the GOP, you're talking about a lot of votes for Obama. Conventional wisdom says McCain is done. For the record, I would have considered voting for McCain in 2000 against Gore. McCain in 2008 needs to disapear fast.

Bear in mind that the presidential race is not the only one this cycle. For those of you political junkies out there, the place where the action is going to be is in the senate. After tomorrow, predictions range from 40-44 seats for the GOP. 44 would be manageable, 40 would be catastrophic.

 

[Bryan]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

What about the "Bradley Effect"? How much of a factor do the rest of you think that's going to be?

 

[The Gardener]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

What about the "Bradley Effect"? How much of a factor do the rest of you think that's going to be?

Interesting question... I was listening to a few of the "pundits" discuss this just last night. One of them had an interesting take on it, saying that race is a much more openly discussed matter in the South, and as such they thought there would be less of a Bradley effect, or potentially, a reverse Bradley effect, in the Southern battleground states such as South Carolina and Florida.

The pundit believed that the worst "Bradley effect" might potentially occur in the Northern and blue states, i.e. Ohio, Pennsylvania, where straight talk about race might still be considered taboo.

 

[powersam]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

How do they calculate how many electoral votes a state gets? Is it by population? By the looks of that map it can't be by area.

 

[Bryan]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

It's by population.

 

[JayBear]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

I don't think there will be a significant Bradley effect. Many people pointed to his loss in New Hampshire as an example that the Bradley effect is still alive and well, but the rest of the primaries pretty much went down as the polling predicted. Gardner may be right that there will be a reverse Bradley in some states, but bear in mind that it has never been measured on a national scale, so its hard to say. At the very least, the incredible groundwork of Obama's campaign should overcome any sort of polling flaws. As an example, the prediction is that Obama will need only 500,000 net votes in the Philadelphia area to take all of PA. He has an army there. I myself will be traveling to Richmond tomorrow to campaign.

p.s. for those of you interested in the Bradley effect, I thought this article was interesting, if extremely subjective: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02396.html

 

[JayBear]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions



I'm not sure what was up with my last post, but my numbers were off, here is my prediction.

 

[badasshairday III]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

^^^^ You are calling Florida for Obama?

I say McCain gets Florida and he also gets one of the following three; Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico.

 

[mulder]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

http://rove.com/election


Even Karl Rove is more bullish on Obama than you guys. Obama is going to win very big tomorrow...I think the real question is whether it will be a landslide or not.

 

[The Gardener]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Wow... Rove says Obama takes Ohio. That's a ballsy call. If Ohio goes for Obama, then its game over for Captain McCain. That state scares me after this last minute release of the clip of Obama talking about coal plants... but obviously its not impossible.

As for Florida, I gave Florida to the GOP because it's Florida. What scares the heck out of me are the ugly smear ads that the GOP 527's have been running at the last minute. Horrible stuff... a quote saying that Obama took "un-named campaign donations from Palestinians" accompanied by videos of hooded jihadists marching through Beirut... (it looks like a Hizbullah militia march). Now, I can smell that one out as a dirty smear, but I can only imagine how some elderly Jewish retiree in Florida might choke on their dinner if they see it.

I'm nervous. I know that things look good, right now... but I don't trust the Rove Team. I'm scared they'll find a way to ruin this. I just don't trust them.

I'm so fricking nervous. I don't even have an appetite for dinner.

The only thing that brought me solace today was overhearing Sean Hannity on the radio this afternoon. I swear to you, he was in a continuous, passionate, rant mode... just going OFF. And, that made me a little happy.

 

[Old Baldy]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Oh Gardener, stop being nervous. You've got this one in the bag. It's OVER.

You'll also have Pelosi and Reid, a full sweep. (I just pray Obama can keep those two idiots in check.)

And I'll be crying in my beer!!

Oh well, the pendulum swings.

Edit: I plan on staying out late tomorrow night after golfing with my right wing buddies. We'll be watching the election at the bar where the young hotties go (probably liberals). That will be a fun time. Maybe we'll get a few sympathy hugs? (I always go towards the ladies with "big ones".)

You just have to know how to take advantage of these types of defeats Gardener! :hump:

 

[BlahBlah12]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Wow... Rove says Obama takes Ohio. That's a ballsy call. If Ohio goes for Obama, then its game over for Captain McCain. That state scares me after this last minute release of the clip of Obama talking about coal plants... but obviously its not impossible.

As for Florida, I gave Florida to the GOP because it's Florida. What scares the heck out of me are the ugly smear ads that the GOP 527's have been running at the last minute. Horrible stuff... a quote saying that Obama took "un-named campaign donations from Palestinians" accompanied by videos of hooded jihadists marching through Beirut... (it looks like a Hizbullah militia march). Now, I can smell that one out as a dirty smear, but I can only imagine how some elderly Jewish retiree in Florida might choke on their dinner if they see it.

I'm nervous. I know that things look good, right now... but I don't trust the Rove Team. I'm scared they'll find a way to ruin this. I just don't trust them.

I'm so fricking nervous. I don't even have an appetite for dinner.

The only thing that brought me solace today was overhearing Sean Hannity on the radio this afternoon. I swear to you, he was in a continuous, passionate, rant mode... just going OFF. And, that made me a little happy.

hahaha i heard that too, and it was followed by a screaming, ranting, nerdy Mark Levin "the great one"
man, someone had that guys panties in a wedgie tonight :jump:

 

[BlahBlah12]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

Hey gardner- are you in as much ectacy as I am right now at 1am with CNN going live all night?!!
HAHA some would call me one huge loser, but this is really exciting. I guess there is a perk to being unemployed on a night like this

 

[The Gardener]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

You'll also have Pelosi and Reid, a full sweep. (I just pray Obama can keep those two idiots in check.)

Agreed. In fact, I hope Obama strong arms them into changing the Congressional leadership, if anything as a sign of him wanting to do housecleaning within the Dem party where warranted. I am NOT a Harry Reid fan.

Oh well, the pendulum swings.

Well said.

Hey gardner- are you in as much ectacy as I am right now at 1am with CNN going live all night?!!
HAHA some would call me one huge loser, but this is really exciting. I guess there is a perk to being unemployed on a night like this

I love this stuff, so much drama.

The Dixville Notch, NH vote is in:
Obama - 15
McCain - 6

 

[JayBear]

Re: US Pres Elections - Electoral Map Predictions

^^^^ You are calling Florida for Obama?

I say McCain gets Florida and he also gets one of the following three; Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico.

Yes, because of early voting.

 

[JayBear]

Just got back from the polls. Fingers crossed that this is the first time in my life I've voted for a winner...